Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for July 21

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Personal Retrospectives and Strategic Market Analysis

• Personal Retrospective Importance: Emphasized the need for traders to conduct their own retrospectives, reviewing results, processes, routines, and analytics regularly.

• Trade Management: Ernie shared his approach to trade management, including the decision-making process for not entering trades when unable to manage them effectively.

• Market Outlook and Trends: Analyzed recent market behavior, identifying a downturn trend and discussing the implications for future trades.

• Technical Patterns: Highlighted the significance of identifying technical patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and three black crows for market predictions.

• Volume Profile Utilization: Stressed the importance of volume profile analysis to identify structural elements and make informed trading decisions.

• Trading Rules Clarification: Provided clear guidelines for trade execution based on market trends, including the importance of waiting for pullbacks into structural elements before entering trades.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting on July 21st, Ernie emphasized the importance of traders conducting their own personal retrospectives. He advised reviewing results, processes, routines, and analytics regularly to ensure continuous improvement. Ernie shared his approach to managing trades, explaining that he avoids entering trades when he cannot manage them effectively, which helps in reducing mistakes and potential losses.

The session included a detailed analysis of the current market outlook, identifying a downturn trend. Ernie discussed the significance of technical patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and three black crows, which are indicators of potential market movements. He highlighted the importance of volume profile analysis for identifying structural elements that serve as key support and resistance levels in the market.

Ernie also provided clear guidelines for trade execution, emphasizing the importance of waiting for pullbacks into structural elements before entering trades. He clarified that traders should not use tools like the profit taker to dictate market direction but rather rely on their analysis and understanding of market trends.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices, continuous personal retrospectives, and a thorough understanding of technical patterns and volume profile analysis to navigate market dynamics effectively.

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Daily Meeting for Friday July 19

Posted on by Conor Browne

Leveraging Market Insights and Routine Mastery for Strategic Trading

• Trade Setup Reflection: Reviewed recent trade setups and the importance of following the telegraphed strategies, emphasizing the need for patience and proper execution.

• Market Volatility Analysis: Discussed the significant increase in market volatility, particularly noting a 35% rise in the VIX over the past week.

• Trade Management Techniques: Addressed strategies for managing trades in high volatility, including adjusting trade widths and using smaller assets to manage risk.

• Volume Profile Utilization: Demonstrated the use of volume profile to identify key market levels and make informed trading decisions, emphasizing its persistence over time.

• Technical Analysis and Indicators: Explained the use of technical indicators like candlestick patterns and their relevance in conjunction with volume profile analysis for better trade execution.

• Risk Management and Routine Development: Emphasized the importance of establishing a consistent trading routine, logging and journaling trades, and managing risk through strategic adjustments based on market conditions.

Summary

Ernie reviewed recent trade setups and stressed the importance of following telegraphed strategies to capitalize on market opportunities. He highlighted the significant increase in market volatility, noting a 35% rise in the VIX over the past week, which presents both challenges and opportunities for traders.

Ernie shared strategies for managing trades in high volatility environments, advising traders to adjust trade widths and consider using smaller assets like the MES to manage risk effectively. He demonstrated the use of volume profile to identify key market levels and emphasized its persistence over time, which helps in making informed trading decisions.

The meeting also covered the application of technical analysis, specifically the use of candlestick patterns alongside volume profile analysis. Ernie explained how these indicators can provide valuable insights for trade execution, though volume profile remains a crucial tool.

Risk management and the development of a consistent trading routine were key themes. Ernie underscored the importance of logging and journaling trades to review and refine strategies continuously. He encouraged traders to establish a routine that includes assessing market conditions, understanding volatility, and making strategic adjustments to maintain a controlled risk environment.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices, thorough market analysis, and effective risk management to navigate volatile market conditions and achieve consistent profitability.

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Daily Meeting for Thursday July 18

Posted on by Conor Browne

Mastering Volume Profile and Dynamic Trading Strategies

• Volume Profile Analysis: Detailed discussion on using volume profile to identify key support and resistance levels, including practical demonstrations on chart markup.

• Market Structure Understanding: Emphasized the importance of recognizing market structure and liquidity areas, and how these insights influence trade entry and exit decisions.

• Trade Execution Strategies: Shared strategies for entering trades based on volume profile analysis, with a focus on timing and volatility considerations.

• Risk Management: Stressed the need for managing gamma risk and making quick profit-taking decisions in low volatility environments.

• Practical Trade Examples: Provided real-time examples of trades, including a put fly setup and the rationale behind choosing specific strike prices and risk-to-reward ratios.

• Tool Utilization and Enhancements: Discussed the use of various trading tools and settings, such as the butterfly calculator and Thinkorswim platform, to improve trade accuracy and efficiency.

Summary

In the daily meeting on July 18th, Ernie focused on the intricacies of volume profile analysis and its application in identifying key support and resistance levels. He demonstrated how to mark up charts using volume profile lines, highlighting the significance of understanding market structure and liquidity areas for making informed trading decisions.

Ernie shared strategies for entering trades based on volume profile analysis, emphasizing the importance of timing and volatility. He explained the concept of gamma risk and advised traders to take quick profits in low volatility environments to mitigate potential losses.

Participants were provided with practical examples of trades, including a put fly setup, where Ernie explained the rationale behind choosing specific strike prices and the risk-to-reward ratios he aimed for. He stressed the importance of having a flexible approach to risk-to-reward ratios, adapting based on market conditions.

The meeting also covered the utilization of various trading tools and enhancements, such as the butterfly calculator and the Thinkorswim platform. Ernie provided detailed guidance on settings and adjustments to improve trade accuracy and efficiency.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for a thorough understanding of volume profile and market structure, strategic trade execution, and effective risk management to navigate market dynamics and achieve consistent profitability.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday July 17

Posted on by Conor Browne

Market Volatility and Mastery of Trading Routines

• Market Volatility Insights: Discussed the overnight Globex market downturn and its impact on implied volatility and trade setups.

• Trade Execution Strategies: Analyzed the morning market movements and identified optimal points for entering trades, particularly during pullbacks.

• Technical Patterns and Analysis: Reviewed patterns of lower highs and lower lows in market behavior, using these observations to inform trading decisions.

• Risk Management and Strategy Adjustments: Emphasized the importance of strategic patience, waiting for significant moves, and managing trades effectively to mitigate risks.

• Educational Discussion on VIX: Provided a detailed explanation of the VIX calculation, its history, and its implications for market sentiment and risk management.

• Tool Utilization and Development: Highlighted the use of trading tools and calculators, including a detailed demonstration of a risk-to-reward helper table for evaluating trade setups.

Summary

In this daily meeting, Ernie addressed the implications of the overnight Globex market downturn, noting its impact on implied volatility and how it influenced the setup for morning trades. He emphasized the importance of patience in trade execution, advising traders to wait for significant market moves and pullbacks before entering trades. Ernie reviewed technical patterns observed in the market, such as lower highs and lower lows, and how these patterns can inform strategic trading decisions.

The session included a detailed educational discussion on the VIX, explaining its calculation, history, and relevance to market sentiment and risk management. Participants engaged in a practical demonstration of trading tools, including a risk-to-reward helper table that assists in evaluating the viability of trade setups based on their potential risks and rewards.

Ernie also highlighted the importance of developing mastery over trading routines, emphasizing the need for consistency and continuous learning to navigate market volatility effectively. The meeting concluded with an open forum for questions, allowing participants to clarify doubts and enhance their understanding of the discussed strategies and tools.

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Daily Meeting for Tuesday July 16

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Patience and Technical Analysis for Consistent Profitability

• Trade Patience: Ernie emphasized the importance of patience in trading, sharing his strategy of waiting an extra 60 seconds before confirming trades to avoid premature exits.

• Market Timing: Discussed recent market behavior, highlighting the importance of timing and the impact of economic reports on market movements, particularly in the SPX.

• Technical Analysis Tools: Demonstrated the use of a butterfly calculator and volume profile for analyzing market structures and making informed trade decisions.

• Volume Profile Mastery: Explained the significance of understanding volume profile lines and how they relate to market support and resistance levels.

• Risk Management: Emphasized the need for strategic risk management, particularly in volatile market conditions, and the use of mental stops or planned exits to mitigate losses.

• Educational Resources: Shared various tools and resources, including a butterfly calculator spreadsheet and detailed market analysis processes, to help participants enhance their trading skills.

Summary

In the daily meeting on July 16th, Ernie emphasized the critical importance of patience in trading, recounting his own experiences where waiting an additional 60 seconds before confirming trades made a significant difference in avoiding premature exits. He advised traders to develop this habit to improve their trading outcomes.

The discussion covered recent market behavior and the impact of economic reports, particularly on the SPX. Ernie highlighted the importance of market timing and shared strategies for navigating these movements. He introduced a butterfly calculator and demonstrated how to use volume profile lines to analyze market structures and identify key support and resistance levels.

Ernie stressed the significance of strategic risk management, especially in volatile conditions, advising traders to use mental stops or planned exits to avoid significant losses. He also shared various tools and educational resources, including a detailed butterfly calculator spreadsheet, to help participants improve their trading skills.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for patience, thorough market analysis, and strategic risk management to achieve consistent profitability in trading. Participants were encouraged to utilize the shared resources and continuously refine their trading strategies based on the discussed techniques.

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Daily Meeting for Monday July 15

Posted on by Conor Browne

Fundamental Trading Routines and Market Adaptation

• Importance of Routines: Ernie emphasized the critical role of establishing and maintaining daily trading routines to ensure consistent success.

• Trade Logging and Journaling: Stressed the necessity of logging and journaling every trade to review and refine strategies continuously.

• Market Analysis Techniques: Discussed the use of volume profile to identify support and resistance levels, crucial for making informed trading decisions.

• Gamma Risk Understanding: Explained the concept of gamma risk and its impact on trade profitability, helping traders to manage risks better.

• Adjusting to Market Behavior: Encouraged traders to adapt their strategies based on market conditions and economic reports, such as the implications of Powell’s recent speech.

• Trade Execution and Confidence: Addressed common challenges in executing trades and maintaining confidence, advising traders to develop a clear plan and stick to it.

Summary

In the daily meeting held on July 15th, Ernie underscored the importance of establishing and maintaining consistent trading routines. He emphasized that developing habits such as logging, journaling, and reviewing trades are fundamental to becoming a successful trader. Ernie highlighted the need for traders to practice these routines diligently, turning them into muscle memory to ensure consistent performance.

The session covered technical aspects such as using the volume profile to identify support and resistance levels, which are critical for making informed trading decisions. Ernie also explained gamma risk, helping traders understand how market movements impact their positions and profitability.

Participants shared their experiences and challenges in trade execution and maintaining confidence. Ernie advised traders to develop clear plans for their trades and adhere to them, adjusting as necessary based on market conditions and economic reports. He also discussed the influence of Powell’s recent speech on the market and how traders should adapt their strategies accordingly.

Overall, the meeting reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices, continuous learning, and adaptation to market dynamics to achieve long-term success.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for July 14

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Insights and Adjustments in Anticipation of Market Volatility

• Premonition and Market Outlook: Ernie shared a vivid premonition of everything “going up in flames,” hinting at significant market and societal upheaval in the coming months.

• Market Behavior and Volatility: Discussed the recent lack of market reaction to significant political events and the potential return of increased volatility, which could benefit trading strategies.

• Economic and Political Influences: Analyzed the impacts of global liquidity, economic reports, and political decisions on market stability, with a focus on the Fed’s attempts to manage a “soft landing.”

• Trade Management Techniques: Addressed questions on trade execution, particularly around capturing exit values for options and using specific trading platforms for managing trades.

• Tool Development and Utilization: Discussed ongoing enhancements to trading tools like the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle, aiming to improve trading efficiency and decision-making.

• Adaptation and Long-Term Strategy: Emphasized the need for traders to adapt strategies to market conditions, maintain low risks, and focus on long-term consistency and incremental PNL growth.

Summary

In this Sunday retrospective meeting, Ernie opened with a personal reflection on a vivid premonition suggesting significant upheavals in the market and broader society. He noted that despite recent significant political events, the market has shown little reaction, but he anticipates a return to higher volatility, which could present new trading opportunities.

The discussion delved into the broader economic context, highlighting how global liquidity and the Fed’s efforts to engineer a “soft landing” are impacting market stability. Ernie expressed skepticism about the Fed’s ability to achieve this goal, suggesting that more significant disruptions may be on the horizon.

Participants asked questions about trade management, particularly on capturing exit values for options and managing trades on various platforms. Ernie provided guidance on using tools like Thinkorswim and discussed the complexities involved in executing trades, especially under low volatility conditions.

The meeting also covered the development and utilization of trading tools such as the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle. Ernie emphasized the importance of these tools in improving trading efficiency and making informed decisions. He encouraged traders to focus on incremental improvements, risk management, and maintaining a consistent approach to building their PNL over the long term.

Overall, the session underscored the importance of adapting to changing market conditions, leveraging advanced tools, and developing a disciplined, long-term trading strategy to navigate potential volatility and achieve sustained success.

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Daily Meeting for Friday July 12

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Trade Execution and Playbook Development

• Playbook Development: Introduced the playbook template for organizing and refining trading strategies, emphasizing the importance of documenting setups and variations.

• Market Behavior Analysis: Discussed recent market moves, particularly impulsive upward trends and their implications for trading strategies.

• Risk Management Techniques: Addressed managing risks with different trade sizes, particularly in low-confidence situations, and the importance of maintaining controlled drawdowns.

• Trader Experiences and Adjustments: Participants shared personal trading experiences, highlighting the necessity of adapting strategies based on market conditions and previous results.

• Strategic Simplification: Advocated for simplifying trading approaches to a basic out-of-the-money butterfly strategy, focusing on consistency and gradual improvements.

• Psychological and Mental Training: Emphasized the role of mental toughness and disciplined decision-making in trading, suggesting methods like meditation and structured programs for developing these skills.

Summary

In this daily meeting, Ernie introduced a playbook template designed to help traders organize and refine their strategies. The playbook is intended to document common setups, such as the single out-of-the-money butterfly, and variations that traders encounter. Ernie emphasized the importance of continuously updating the playbook to reflect what works and what doesn’t, helping traders develop a robust trading plan over time.

The meeting also analyzed recent market behaviors, including impulsive upward trends, and discussed how these movements impact trading strategies. Ernie and the participants shared experiences and insights on managing risks, particularly when confidence in market direction is low. The discussion highlighted the necessity of maintaining controlled drawdowns and making strategic adjustments based on market conditions.

Ernie advocated for simplifying trading approaches, suggesting that traders focus on a basic out-of-the-money butterfly strategy to build consistency and confidence. He stressed the importance of mental toughness and disciplined decision-making in trading, recommending methods like meditation and structured programs to develop these skills.

Overall, the session underscored the need for a systematic approach to trading, continuous learning, and the development of both technical and psychological skills to achieve long-term success.

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Daily Meeting for Thursday July 11

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Adjustments and Market Analysis Amid Economic Volatility

• Market Support and Resistance: Discussed the potential bottom for NQ and the possibility of placing calls based on current market support levels.

• Economic Reports Impact: Examined the influence of economic reports, such as the 30-year bond auction and Fed governor speeches, on market behavior.

• Trade Execution and Overlapping Positions: Addressed challenges with overlapping put butterflies and the implications for trade management and risk.

• Technical Analysis Techniques: Demonstrated the use of volume profile lines for identifying strong support and resistance zones in market trading.

• Risk Management Strategies: Emphasized the importance of managing trade risks, particularly when using mobile platforms, and the potential benefits of contacting brokers for assistance.

• Tool Utilization and Enhancements: Discussed the development and usage of trading tools, such as the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle, for improving trading efficiency and decision-making.

Summary

In this daily meeting, Ernie and the participants focused on the current market conditions, analyzing the potential bottom for NQ and the implications for placing call options. They discussed the influence of upcoming economic reports, such as the 30-year bond auction and speeches by Fed governors, on market volatility and trading strategies.

Participants shared their experiences with overlapping put butterflies, highlighting the complexities of managing such trades and the risks involved. Ernie provided guidance on technical analysis techniques, emphasizing the use of volume profile lines to identify strong support and resistance zones.

Risk management was a key theme, with Ernie stressing the importance of understanding and managing trade risks, particularly when executing trades on mobile platforms. He advised contacting brokers for assistance in managing complex positions and understanding potential risks.

The meeting also covered the development and usage of trading tools, such as the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle, which are designed to enhance trading efficiency and decision-making. Ernie introduced the concept of a Playbook for organizing and documenting trading strategies, and participants discussed how these tools could be used to improve their trading practices.

Overall, the session emphasized the need for careful market analysis, effective risk management, and the strategic use of trading tools to navigate economic volatility and enhance trading outcomes.