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Daily Meeting Friday November 10

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Trades and Market Movements

• Early Trade Execution: Discussion on the benefits and outcomes of entering trades before the market opens, with personal trade examples provided.

• Profit Management: Strategies for securing profits, including setting trailing stops based on high watermarks and the importance of not letting winners turn into losers.

• Use of Box Trades: Explanation of how to set up box trades in Thinkorswim for SPX options, and clarification on the assignment process for SPX and ES options.

• Adapting to Market Signals: The importance of adjusting to market trends and conditions, with a focus on low volatility strategies and the use of the Hull moving average for trend direction.

• Monitoring Trades: Introducing a potential app for monitoring trade profits and discussing the functionality of the Thinkorswim mobile app for setting trailing stops.

• Diversifying Income Streams: Encouragement for traders to explore multiple streams of income, with suggestions ranging from consulting to online marketplaces.

Summary

The daily meeting focused on the nuances of executing early trades, particularly before market open, and the rationale behind such timing. The speaker shared personal trade experiences, emphasizing the significance of risk management through profit-taking strategies and the use of box trades. There was a technical walkthrough on setting up and understanding box trades within the Thinkorswim platform, specifically for SPX options, and a discussion on the non-impact of assignments for cash-settled indices.

Further, the conversation shifted to market behavior, with insights on adapting to market trends and leveraging tools like the Hull moving average to determine directional bias. The potential for a new app that monitors trade profits was discussed, as well as the capabilities of mobile trading apps like Thinkorswim for setting dynamic trailing stops.

Lastly, the topic of diversifying income was addressed, with the speaker urging traders to consider multiple income streams. This included options like consulting based on personal skills, online work, and even real estate ventures. The meeting concluded with an acknowledgment of the trading challenges faced, such as exiting trades early due to other commitments, and a reminder of the importance of consistency in trading strategies.

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Daily Meeting for Thursday November 9

Posted on by ernie

Independent Strategy and Real-Time Decision-Making

• Traders are discouraged from copying strategies without understanding; independent decision-making is key.

• Utilization of volume profile for strategic market structure analysis and node identification.

• The use of mental trailing stops is discussed, with an emphasis on dynamic profit management.

• Importance of pre-planning scenarios and making informed decisions to avoid indecision during live trades.

• Adapting butterfly widths based on the volatility regime to optimize trade setups.

• A live trading session showcases the process of setting and executing exit strategies based on market movement.

Summary

The daily meeting for Zero DTE traders revolved around the principle of independent strategy formulation and the critical evaluation of real-time market data for informed decision-making. The discussion highlighted the pitfalls of copying trades without a thorough understanding of the underlying strategy and the legal and practical implications. The use of volume profiles was emphasized as a means to grasp the market structure, particularly focusing on how prices interact within identified nodes. The conversation also touched upon the concept of mental trailing stops and the need to pre-plan for various market scenarios to reduce the impact of indecision. Additionally, traders were advised on how to adjust their butterfly trade widths in response to the prevailing market volatility, ensuring flexibility and responsiveness to market conditions. The session included a live trading segment where the facilitator demonstrated the thought process behind setting exit strategies and the execution of a trade, which involved a critical decision point influenced by sudden market drops and recoveries.

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Daily Meeting for Friday November 3

Posted on by ernie

Mastering the Market: A Day of Trading Insights and Strategies

• Seasonal Shifts and Measurement Systems: Discussion on the drastic weather changes and the debate between Fahrenheit and Celsius, humorously referred to as “freedom units.”

• Market Moves and Economic Reports: Ernie shares observations on market trends post-FOMC announcements and reactions to significant economic reports such as non-farm payrolls.

• The Power of Volume Profile: Emphasis on the importance of volume profile over traditional chart patterns or indicators for predicting market movements.

• Execution Skills and Trade Management: Strong advice on the importance of mastering trade execution before risking capital, and the need for consistency in trade management.

• Developing Mastery Through Shu Ha Ri: Highlighting the journey of mastering trading, starting with fundamentals, through learning techniques, and eventually integrating personal adaptation and mastery.

• Routine and Process Obsession: The insistence on developing and adhering to a strict trading routine and process as the cornerstone of becoming a consistently profitable trader.

Summary:

In a dynamic discussion, Ernie tackles various topics, starting with a humorous take on weather patterns and measurement unit preferences. He then pivots to more serious matters, analyzing recent market movements in response to the FOMC’s decisions and critical economic reports. Ernie underscores the superiority of volume profile as a tool for understanding market structure, rejecting common technical analysis methods used by many retail traders.

The conversation shifts to a crucial trading lesson on the necessity of flawless execution skills, advising traders to practice diligently before engaging with real money. Ernie advocates for the Japanese concept of Shu Ha Ri to describe the stages of learning and mastering trading, emphasizing that even experienced traders must continuously revisit and hone their fundamental skills.

To cap off the meeting, Ernie passionately reiterates the importance of establishing a routine, aligning with the principle that strict adherence to a well-defined process is essential for long-term success in trading. He encourages traders to be obsessed with their routines, suggesting this as the ultimate path to professional and consistent profitability.

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Daily Meeting for Thursday November 2

Posted on by ernie

Mastering Volatility: Adapting Strategies for Consistent Trading Success

• Adjusting trade strategies with a focus on butterfly widths in relation to current market volatility.

• The significance of consistency in trading methods and the role of process obsession in achieving success.

• Exploration of different volatility regimes and their impact on trade profitability and exposure.

• The relationship between butterfly widths, volatility, and the timing of trade placements.

• Insight into the limitations of backtesting and the preference for real trading experience over simulations.

• Continuous learning and adaptation in trading through daily experimentation and process refinement.

Summary

In the detailed discussion, Coach Ernie focuses on adapting trading strategies to market volatility, specifically regarding butterfly trade widths. He emphasizes the importance of consistency and process over simply aiming for high returns. Traders are encouraged to experiment and adapt to volatility shifts, using a range of contract sizes and assets to manage exposure effectively.

Ernie also critiques backtesting’s limitations, promoting real-time trading experience as the most reliable method for strategy refinement. The agile process is championed as a means for continuous improvement, with each trading day serving as a live experiment. Drawing analogies from fishing and pool, he illustrates the value of technique and process mastery in trading, recommending a six-month timeframe for developing a solid trading process for consistent results.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday November 1

Posted on by ernie

Embracing Volatility: Trading Tactics for FOMC Announcements and Economic Shifts

• Trading Amidst Scheduling Conflicts: Ernie discusses challenges of making trades during conflicting schedules and hints at developing an automated trading solution.

• Volatility and Federal Reserve Decisions: The discussion focuses on market volatility in anticipation of Federal Reserve announcements, positioning it as an opportunity rather than a setback for traders.

• Economic Reports’ Impact on Markets: The podcast analyzes economic indicators like crude oil inventories and labor market stats, emphasizing the counterintuitive impacts on market movements.

• Fed Day Trading Strategies: Ernie suggests strategies for trading on Fed days, advocating for smaller, more calculated risks rather than larger, potentially more damaging bets.

• The Illusion of Market-Agnostic Trades: The conversation debunks the idea of market-agnostic trades, like the Batman strategy, and favors more decisive stances with a potential for higher returns.

• Risk Management and Trade Size Considerations: The importance of trade size and risk management is underscored, with a focus on preserving capital and the advantages of high risk-to-reward trade setups.

Summary

In this comprehensive session, Ernie addresses the intricacies of trading during pivotal economic announcements, particularly focusing on the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and how they affect market volatility. He shares the difficulties of executing trades amidst a busy schedule and teases the possibility of automating trading processes. The conversation then shifts to dissecting the day’s economic reports and their surprising effects on the market, suggesting that traders should welcome volatility as it offers greater opportunities, especially on Fed days.

Ernie critiques the notion of market-agnostic strategies, explaining why they can give a false sense of security and ultimately lead to suboptimal results. He discusses his personal philosophy on trading values, which prioritizes capital preservation and advocates for taking calculated risks with higher potential rewards. The discussion also touches on various strategies for Fed days, including taking profits from early morning trades and considering “poor man’s strangles” or other low-risk bets to capitalize on expected volatility.

The session delves into why playing a range of risk-to-reward ratios can be beneficial and how sticking to a consistent strategy can lead to better long-term results. Ernie also shares insights on his personal trading experiences, reinforcing the idea that while all trades may yield some return, identifying the optimal ones for any given day requires flexibility, experience, and sometimes a bit of luck.

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Daily Meeting for Tuesday October 31

Posted on by ernie

Mastering the Trader’s Mindset: A Path to Consistent Profitability

• Emphasis on process adherence over outcome-focused trading, encouraging acceptance of market unpredictability.
• Discussion on the ‘Batman’ strategy for managing risk when market direction is uncertain and the cost of increased risk.
• Importance of understanding and accepting probabilistic trading, moving away from the illusion of market prediction.
• Techniques for managing trading emotions, including developing detachment skills for objective decision-making.
• Exploration of market behavior using volume nodes and market structure for scenario planning rather than prediction.
• Advocacy for a continuous review process, allowing traders to learn from their experiences and adapt their strategies.

Summary:

In this daily meeting, Coach Ernie dives into the psychological and strategic aspects crucial to trading. He reiterates the importance of focusing on the trading process and accepting the inherent uncertainty of market movements, rather than trying to predict them. The session highlights the ‘Batman’ strategy as a way to handle ambiguity in market direction, while also discussing the emotional challenges traders face, like dealing with consecutive losses and the temptation to react impulsively to market changes. Ernie stresses the value of scenario planning based on market structure and volume nodes, but cautions against using these as predictive tools. He concludes with strong advice on the necessity of a consistent review process, which is essential for learning and adapting one’s trading approach for long-term success.

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Daily Meeting for Monday October 30

Posted on by ernie

Topics Covered:

• Strategic approach and planning for trading 0-DTE options.
• The interplay of liquidity, the Greeks, and implied volatility in 0-DTE trading.
• Selection of strike prices and timing for trade entries and exits.
• Technical analysis application in 0-DTE strategy.
• Psychological aspects of trading and risk management techniques.
• Importance of discipline, continuous learning, and adaptation.

Summary:

In this meeting, members of the 0-DTE Service were provided with a comprehensive view of day-of-expiration options trading. Coach Ernie underscored the importance of a well-thought-out trading strategy to navigate the high-risk environment of 0-DTE options. He discussed the critical factors that influence these trades, including liquidity, the Greeks, and implied volatility, and how they should inform the selection of strike prices and timing of trades.

Technical analysis was highlighted as a key tool in the decision-making process, while the psychological demands of high-frequency trading and the necessary risk management practices were also addressed. Coach Ernie stressed the need for discipline and patience, advocating for the use of a trading journal to record strategies and outcomes, thus reinforcing the learning process. Lastly, he emphasized the need for traders to continually educate themselves and adapt to evolving market conditions to maintain long-term success in the trading arena.