Author Archives: Conor Browne

Initial Position Assessment:

• Entry Timing: After entering the trade based on the 0-DTE strategy, immediately assess the location of the underlying price relative to your butterfly strikes.
• Initial Stop & Profit Target: Based on the volatility regime and market structure, set an initial wide stop and a loose initial profit target to allow the trade to develop.

Monitor Real-Time Profit Curve:

• Track the Max Profit Achieved: Monitor the highest profit level since the trade was entered. This serves as a reference for your hold or fold decisions.
• Assess Position Relative to Butterfly: Regularly evaluate where the current price is relative to the center and wings of your butterfly. The closer the price is to the center, the more potential profit the position holds, but also the higher the gamma risk as expiration approaches.

Structural Interaction Analysis:

Identify Key Structural Levels: Before the market opens, ensure all significant structural levels, such as HVNs, LVNs, and key support and resistance lines, are clearly marked on your chart.

Assess Market Reaction to Structural Levels as the price interacts with these structural levels:

• Support Interaction: If the price pulls back to a support level and holds, this could provide a lower-risk opportunity to add to or hold a position.
• Resistance Interaction: If the price approaches and struggles at aresistance level, consider tightening stops or taking partial profits.
• Breakthroughs: If the price breaks through a structural level with momentum, assess whether this move aligns with the current trend and adjust your risk assessment. A strong breakthrough may indicate a trend continuation, while a failure could suggest a reversal.
• Modify Risk Assessment: Based on the price’s interaction with these structural elements, adjust your trailing stop and profit targets or consider exiting the trade if the structural level is a significant barrier.

Dynamic Risk Tolerance:

• Morning Session (9:30 AM – 11:00 AM ET): Wider Tolerance: In the morning session, your risk tolerance should be wide, allowing the trade to fluctuate. Monitor how price interacts with structural levels and adjust your stops if a level holds significant support or resistance. Monitor Momentum: If the price trends toward your butterfly center and respects structural levels, maintain a relaxed trailing stop to allow the trade to develop.
• Midday Session (11:00 AM – 1:00 PM ET): Moderate Tolerance: As time progresses, gradually narrow your trailing stop. Pay close attention to how the price behaves around structural levels—if it consolidates near a key level, this may be an opportunity to hold; if it’s struggling, consider tightening stops. Adjust to Market Conditions: If the market remains stable or consolidates near a structural level, hold the position through minor pullbacks. If a strong move from a structural level occurs, reassess the trade’s potential and adjust accordingly.
• Afternoon Session (1:00 PM – 3:30 PM ET): Narrowing Tolerance: As expiration nears, tighten your tolerance. Structural levels become even more critical—assess whether the price breaks through or respects these levels and adjust your risk management strategy accordingly. Critical Hold/Fold Decisions: Continuously assess whether holding the position aligns with your profit objectives. Use this information to decide whether to hold or exit if the price is near a strong structural level that could act as support or resistance.
• End of Day (3:30 PM – 4:00 PM ET): Maximize Profit Potential: In the final 30 minutes, structural levels are crucial in determining whether you should hold until expiration. If the price is within a critical support/resistance zone, be prepared to exit quickly if it fails to break through. Final Stop Adjustment: As the market approaches the close, set a final trailing stop just outside of the profitable zone, considering the proximity of structural levels, to protect against last-minute volatility while aiming for the maximum possible gain.

Decision Points:

• Profit Retracement Thresholds: Define a profit retracement threshold (e.g., 20-30% of the maximum profit achieved). If the price retraces this amount from the peak, and mainly if this occurs near a structural level, consider folding part or all of the position.
• Gamma Risk Management: As expiration nears, continuously assess gamma risk about structural levels. The closer to expiration, the more sensitive your position becomes to price movement, especially around key support or resistance levels.
• Volatility Spike Reaction: If you observe a sudden spike in volatility near a structural level, reassess your position immediately. High volatility could drastically affect the profit curve and may require immediate action to lock in gains or limit losses.

Post-Trade Review:

• Review Structural Interactions: After the trade closes, review how price interacted with key structural levels and how those interactions influenced your hold/fold decisions.
• Adjust Future Strategy: Use insights from the trade to refine your approach to structural analysis and risk management for future sessions.

Summary:

This enhanced method ensures that your profit management framework is dynamically responsive to the time of day, the profit curve, and how price interacts with critical structural elements. This approach will help you make more informed decisions and optimize your ability to capture profits while managing risks effectively.

Navigating Volatility in 0DTE Options Trading

As traders, our exposure to risk is intricately linked to market volatility. This relationship isn’t linear or static; it’s a dynamic sliding scale that requires continual reassessment. Specifically, in our utilization of the Out of The Money (OTM) Butterfly strategy during 0DTE events, volatility plays a dual role, affecting both the opportunity for profit and the level of risk.

Low Volatility: Contraction of Position Size

During periods of low volatility, the market presents us with ‘less meat on the bones,’ so to speak. This means that the premiums on options are lower, and the accelerated decay rate, although beneficial for certain strategies, comes with heightened gamma risk. Gamma risk, the rate of change in an option’s delta for every point move in the underlying asset, becomes a critical factor to watch. In such an environment, the window for extracting value from premium decay narrows, necessitating a more guarded approach and reduced exposure.

High Volatility: Expansion of Position Size

Conversely, high volatility regimes are the sweet spot for our OTM Butterfly strategy. High volatility equates to higher option premiums, offering a more substantial opportunity for profit as the decay of these premiums is delayed. The options retain their ‘meat’ for longer, providing a buffer against the market’s fluctuations and allowing us to increase our exposure confidently. The inherent nature of high-volatility markets gives rise to broader movements where our positions can realize greater potential gains.

Understanding the Two Levels of Volatility

• Current Volatility Regime (Big Picture): This refers to the overall state of market volatility over an extended period. It sets the backdrop against which we align our strategic approach and risk tolerance.
• Daily Implied Volatility (Small Picture): This is a more granular view of volatility, affected by daily market nuances such as economic reports, overnight price actions, and new energies entering the market. Our daily adjustments are a response to these subtle shifts.

The 0DTE Event: A Crucible of Opportunity

The 0DTE event is where the premium decay is most pronounced, offering a unique edge to those who navigate it with finesse. Options on weekly expiries like the SPX, XSP, e-mini futures (ES, MES, NQ), NDX, and others experience dramatic changes in decay rates as they approach expiration. The width of our OTM Butterflies, paired with these decay rates, can significantly impact the risk-reward profile of our trades.

Why Options Traders Favor High Volatility

The preference for high-volatility markets over low-volatility ones among options traders is clear. High volatility does not just mean more opportunities; it represents a landscape where the risk of trades is more visible, manageable, and potentially rewarding. The premiums are richer, the movements are more significant, and our strategies can be executed with a greater assurance of their resilience against market swings.

Conclusion

Our exposure to risk is a reflection of the current volatility landscape. In low-volatility periods, we tread lightly, minimizing our risk footprint. In times of high volatility, we expand our presence, capitalizing on the favorable conditions for our strategic plays. Based on the clear realities of market volatility, this adaptive approach to risk is crucial for the sustainable success of any options trader, particularly those specializing in 0DTE events.

This clarifies and emphasizes employing an asymmetric approach to risk management, particularly in position sizing and avoiding the pitfalls associated with using stop-loss orders, providing a refined strategy for managing trading risk. This approach prioritizes capital preservation through calculated position sizing based on statistical measures and a deep understanding of win rates and losing streak probabilities. Let’s delve into the key components of this strategy:

Asymmetric Approach to Risk Management

• Maximizing Position Size Based on Statistical Measures: By focusing on the extreme application of an asymmetric risk-to-reward ratio, the strategy aims to minimize the need for active risk management through stop-loss orders. Instead, the risk is inherently managed by the size of the position relative to the trader’s total capital.
• Containment of Drawdowns: The strategy sets a threshold for drawdowns, ideally keeping them under 10% to avoid the exponential difficulty in recovering from larger losses. This threshold is not just a target but a critical parameter in calculating position size to ensure that the trader’s capital is protected even in worst-case scenarios.

Calculating Maximum Position Size

• Using Statistical Measures for Drawdown Management: The calculation of maximum position size is grounded in statistical analysis. Recognizing that achieving consistent daily direction in trading equates to a win rate of approximately 50% and considering the natural occurrence of winning and losing streaks over many trades, the strategy uses mathematical expectations to define risk parameters.
• Expectation of Winning and Losing Streaks: By employing the formula involving the logarithm base 2 of the total number of trades, you estimate the maximum expected streak size. For 400-500 trades a year, this calculation forecasts a streak size of about 9 to 10. This insight into potential streak lengths informs the position sizing strategy to ensure resilience against expected variance in trading outcomes.
• Position Size Calculation: With a 10% maximum drawdown limit and an understanding of expected streak lengths, the position size for each trade is capped at roughly 1% of the trader’s total trading capital. This calculation aims to preserve capital by limiting exposure on any single trade and facilitates a controlled approach to managing equity curve volatility.

Implications and Advantages

• Controlled Equity Curve Volatility: By meticulously managing position sizes, traders can achieve a more stable and predictable equity growth curve. This stability is crucial for long-term trading sustainability and psychological well-being.
• Enhanced Capital Preservation: The strategic emphasis on keeping individual trade exposure low as a percentage of total capital protects against significant drawdowns. This approach aligns with the principle of asymmetric risk management, which focuses on maximizing potential returns relative to the risk taken.
• Strategic Flexibility: This risk management method allows traders to remain engaged in the market without the constant concern for stop-loss order execution, which can sometimes exit trades prematurely in volatile conditions. Instead, the strategy accepts the inherent market risk up to a calculated limit, providing a buffer against the unpredictability of market movements.

Conclusion

Our approach to risk management through precise position sizing and an understanding of statistical probabilities offers a sophisticated and effective strategy for trading. By focusing on controlling drawdowns and managing the volatility of the equity curve, traders can align their practices with successful historical precedents. This method underscores the importance of a strategic, calculated approach to trading that prioritizes capital preservation and long-term sustainability over short-term gains.

Initial Playbook Entry: OTM Butterfly in Trend Direction

Setup Name: OTM Butterfly in Trend Direction

Objective: To profit from trending markets with minimal risk.

Pre-Market Trend Analysis: Refer to the standardized trend identification method as outlined in the playbook. This method should be used consistently for all trades to maintain a 50% win rate, leveraging the natural daily market returns.

Entry Criteria:

1. Market Trend: Use the standardized trend identification method from the playbook.
2. Time: Target the morning session for entries.
3. Volume Profile Analysis: Wait for a pullback to a market structural level.
4. Market Structure: Enter at the intersection of a market structure and morning session.
5. Entry Debit: Ensure the entry debit is less than 10% of the butterfly width.

Profit Management:

Tracking Unrealized Gains:

• Track the session’s high unrealized gain.
• Apply a trailing stop or tolerance zone based on the time of the session, gamma risk, structural analysis, and price action patterns.

Trailing Stop/Tolerance Zone:

• Morning Session: Larger tolerance zone.
• Afternoon Session: Moderate tolerance zone.
• Closing Session: Smaller tolerance zone.
• Flexibility: Adjust the tolerance zone based on market structures and high-probability price action across those structures.

Capturing Gains:

• Capture gains before reaching the profit tent, which comprises 75% of winning trades.
• These gains are typically between 25% and 200% of the risk taken.

Maximizing Profit:

• For trades that make it into the profit tent (12.5% of trades), manage for 200% to 400% returns.
• Occasionally achieve near-pin trades with 400% to 1000% returns.

Risk Management:

Defined Risk:

• Accept fully defined risk for each trade due to its asymmetric nature.
• Allow losing trades to go to a full loss, except in rare significant reversals.

Market Reactions:

• Adjust or close if a significant market reversal occurs.

Risk/Reward Analysis:

• Expected risk-to-reward ratio of 1:5 or better.

Market Conditions:

• Optimal in low/moderate volatility with sustained trends.

Example Trades:

• Historical examples with outcomes to illustrate the setup.

Notes:

• Monitor key support/resistance levels using Volume Profile.

Template for Variations Based on Market Conditions and Opening Price Action Variations

Setup Name: Descriptive Name of the Variation

Objective: Clearly defined goal for the trade (e.g., profit from volatile markets with large moves).

Pre-Market Trend Analysis: Refer to the standardized trend identification method as outlined in the playbook.

Entry Criteria:

1. Market Trend: Use the standardized trend identification method from the playbook.
2. Time: Specify the timing for entries.
3. Volume Profile Analysis: Detail the volume profile analysis required.
4. Market Structure: Indicate the market structure levels to watch.
5. Entry Debit: State the acceptable entry debit range.

Price Action Variations:

Gap Up/Gap Down:

• Description: Large move at market open.
• Adjustment: Wait for a pullback and align with the trend.

Opening Range Breakout:

• Description: Price breaks the initial 30-minute range.
• Adjustment: Trade in breakout direction and adjust fly width.

Reversal Patterns:

• Description: Initial move reverses direction.
• Adjustment: Confirm reversal and enter at the structural level.

Consolidation/Range Bound:

• Description: Price moves within a narrow range.
• Adjustment: Wait for a clear breakout or directional move.

Trend Continuation:

• Description: Price continues the pre-market trend.
• Adjustment: Enter after pullback and adjust fly width.

False Breakout:

• Description: Price breaks level but reverses quickly.
• Adjustment: Wait for confirmation before entering.

Pullback to Support/Resistance:

• Description: Price pulls back to a known level.
• Adjustment: Enter with confirmation, and adjust fly width.

Profit Management:

Tracking Unrealized Gains:

• Track the session’s high unrealized gain.
• Apply a trailing stop or tolerance zone based on the time of the session, gamma risk, structural analysis, and price action patterns.

Trailing Stop/Tolerance Zone:

• Morning Session: Larger tolerance zone.
• Afternoon Session: Moderate tolerance zone.
• Closing Session: Smaller tolerance zone.
• Flexibility: Adjust the tolerance zone based on market structures and high-probability price action across those structures.

Capturing Gains:

• Capture gains before reaching the profit tent.
• Expected gains between 25% and 200% of the risk taken.

Maximizing Profit:

• Manage 200% to 400% returns for trades in the profit tent.
• Occasionally achieve near-pin trades with 400% to 1000% returns.

Risk Management:

Defined Risk:

• Accept fully defined risk for each trade due to its asymmetric nature.
• Allow losing trades to go to a full loss, except in rare significant reversals.

Market Reactions:

• Describe adjustments based on significant market reversals.

Risk/Reward Analysis:

• Expected risk-to-reward ratio.

Market Conditions:

• Optimal scenarios for this setup.

Example Trades:

• Historical examples with outcomes to illustrate the setup.

Notes:

• Additional insights and observations relevant to the setup.

Standardized Trend Identification Method

Objective: To consistently identify market trends using a standardized method,

ensuring a near 50% win rate by aligning with the natural daily returns of

the market.

Method:

Moving Averages:

• Use 20 EMA and 50 EMA.
• Bullish Trend: 20 EMA above 50 EMA.
• Bearish Trend: 20 EMA below 50 EMA.

Futures Data:

• Monitor S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow Jones futures.
• Compare current prices for futures with the previous day’s close.

RSI:

• Bullish Trend: RSI above 50.
• Bearish Trend: RSI below 50.

Volume Profile: Identify high-volume nodes (HVNs) and low-volume nodes (LVNs).

• Bullish Trend: Price above HVNs.
• Bearish Trend: Price below HVNs.

VWAP:

• Bullish Trend: Price above VWAP.
• Bearish Trend: Price below VWAP.

Implementation:

• Use ONE method CONSISTENTLY for all trades.
• Review and update based on long-term performance data.

This playbook entry and template ensure that traders use a standardized trend identification method for consistency while dynamically managing trades to maximize profit and accept defined risks. The approach to profit management includes flexibility to adjust the tolerance zone based on market structures and high-probability price action, making it easier for traders to follow and implement

Entry Strategies

Here’s a list of entry strategies you’ve suggested, along with a few additional ones that are commonly used:

1. Early Entry: Enter the market just minutes or immediately after the open, trying to account for the fact that about two thirds of the time, IV has peaked near the open.
2. Wait for IV to Stabilize: Instead of entering at the very beginning of the market session, wait for implied volatility to calm down a bit before entering.
3. Predicting IV Peaks: This strategy involves trying to determine when the implied volatility will likely peak for that morning session due to economic influencers and entering at that time.
4. Pre-market Entry: This strategy involves entering prior to all the market action to try and get in front of a potential early morning move.
5. Breakout Strategy: This strategy involves entering a position when the price breaks above resistance or below support. Traders often use this strategy in conjunction with technical indicators and chart patterns.
6. Pullback Strategy: Also known as a retracement strategy, it involves entering a position when the price pulls back to a trendline, moving average, or other support or resistance level after a strong move.
7. Reversal Strategy: This strategy involves entering a position when the price appears to be changing direction. This can be determined using candlestick patterns, divergence with an oscillator, or other technical indicators.
8. News-based Entry: Entering a trade based on news events. This could be an earnings announcement, a change in interest rates, or a geopolitical event that is expected to impact the market.
9. Momentum Strategy: This strategy involves entering a position when the price is showing significant momentum in one direction. This could be identified using moving averages, MACD, or other momentum indicators.
10. Scaling In: Gradually entering a position over time to achieve a better average price. This could involve entering additional positions as the price moves in the trader’s favor or against them.

Please remember that each of these strategies requires careful risk management and an understanding of the market conditions in which they are most effective. It’s also crucial to develop a clear plan for when to exit a trade, not just when to enter.

Developing an Entry Strategy: A Data-Driven Approach

Developing an effective entry strategy adaptable to changing market conditions can be complex but rewarding. Here’s a process you can consider:

• Study Different Entry Strategies: Understand the different entry strategies that traders use. You’ve already identified several – entering at the start of the trading day, waiting for the IV to stabilize, predicting IV peaks, or entering before market action to anticipate early morning movements.
• Test Your Strategies: Begin by picking one strategy and sticking to it for a specific period or number of trades. This might be a week, a month, or a certain number of trades. Whatever you decide is appropriate. Collect as much data as possible about each trade – entry point, exit point, IV at different times, and any other relevant market conditions.
• Evaluate and Learn: After the predetermined period, assess your performance. How did your trades perform? Are there correlations between your actions and your performance? What were the market conditions like? This stage involves learning from your actions and understanding how different strategies work in various market situations.
• Refine Your Strategies: Based on your analysis, refine your strategies. Maybe you need to tweak your entry point or hold off a bit longer before entering the trade. It’s about optimizing your approach based on your experience.
• Switch Your Strategies: After refining one strategy, move on to the next. Apply the same process – stick with the strategy for a specific period, collect data, assess, learn, and refine.
• Compare Your Strategies: Once you’ve tested and refined all the strategies, compare them. Which performed best in which market conditions? Do certain strategies tend to perform better than others?
• Create Your Hybrid Approach: You may find that no single strategy performs best in all conditions. So, consider creating a hybrid approach where you apply different strategies based on different market conditions.
• Continual Optimization: Remember that the market is always changing. What works today might not work tomorrow. So, it’s crucial to keep testing, evaluating, learning, and refining.

How long this process will take depends on how many trades you make, how varied the market conditions are during your testing periods, and how quickly you can analyze and understand your data. It is helpful to use automated tools or software to aid in data collection and analysis. Remember, this is a process of continual learning and adaptation.

Every trade is an opportunity to learn and refine your strategy. By using a data-driven approach, you can gradually build up a comprehensive understanding of how different strategies perform under various market conditions and use this knowledge to optimize your trading approach