Category Archives: Retrospective

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for November 3

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategy Adjustments and Discipline in Low-Volatility

• Reflection on the week’s low-volatility market conditions and the impact on trading outcomes.

• Evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy’s effectiveness, with insights on further refinements for stagnant markets.

• Emphasis on the importance of patience and discipline, especially in low-activity environments.

• Discussion on conservative risk management techniques, including controlled position sizing and stop-loss adjustments.

• Review of technical indicators that can assist in spotting reliable setups despite limited market movement.

• Setting goals for the upcoming week focused on precision in trade execution and adherence to risk management protocols.

Summary

the team reviewed the past week’s trading activities, which were marked by persistently low volatility. The discussion began with an evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy’s performance, identifying areas for improvement to better suit stagnant market conditions.

Ernie emphasized the importance of maintaining patience and discipline, especially when low market activity limits opportunities. Conservative risk management techniques were discussed, with a focus on careful position sizing and stop-loss adjustments to preserve capital in uncertain conditions.

The team also explored technical indicators that can help identify reliable setups in low-volatility environments. Ernie concluded the meeting by setting goals for the upcoming week, encouraging the team to prioritize precision in trade execution and strict adherence to risk management practices.

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Sunday Retrospective for October 27

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategy Refinement and Risk Management Insights

• Reflection on the past week’s high market volatility and its impact on trade outcomes and strategy effectiveness.

• Evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy’s performance, with insights into potential adjustments for fluctuating market conditions.

• Emphasis on the importance of disciplined risk management, particularly in protecting capital during unpredictable market shifts.

• Discussion on identifying optimal entry and exit points using technical indicators to better time trades.

• Analysis of economic and geopolitical factors that contributed to market volatility, impacting trade decisions.

• Setting goals for the upcoming week, focusing on refining entry/exit strategies and maintaining patience in volatile environments.

Summary

the team reviewed the trading activities and challenges of the past week, marked by significant market volatility. Ernie led a discussion on the performance of the “big ass fly” strategy, noting areas for refinement to better align with fluctuating conditions.

The importance of disciplined risk management was emphasized, particularly to protect capital in volatile and unpredictable markets. The team explored methods for using technical indicators to identify optimal trade entry and exit points, aiming to improve timing and execution.

Economic and geopolitical factors influencing market volatility were also analyzed, providing context for recent trading outcomes. Ernie concluded by setting goals for the upcoming week, encouraging the team to refine their strategies, focus on timing, and exercise patience to navigate the challenging market environment.

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Sunday Retrospective for October 20

Posted on by Conor Browne

Adapting Strategies for Low-Volatility and Long-Term Focus

• Reflection on the week’s low-volatility market conditions and their impact on trading strategies.

• Emphasis on the importance of patience and avoiding overtrading in stagnant market environments.

• Review of the “big ass fly” strategy’s performance, with recommendations for adjustments to better suit low-volatility periods.

• Discussion on risk management techniques, focusing on preserving capital while seeking small but consistent profits.

• Exploration of technical indicators and market signals that can help in identifying potential breakout points in quiet markets.

• Setting goals for the upcoming week, including maintaining discipline, refining trade setups, and staying focused on long-term objectives.

Summary

the team reviewed the trading activities of the past week, marked by persistently low volatility. The discussion highlighted the challenges posed by such conditions, with Ernie emphasizing the need for patience and the importance of avoiding the temptation to overtrade in a stagnant market.

The “big ass fly” strategy was analyzed, with recommendations for adjustments to make it more effective in the current market environment. The session also covered risk management techniques designed to protect capital while aiming for small, consistent profits, a critical approach when market movements are minimal.

The team explored the use of technical indicators and market signals that could help in identifying breakout points, offering opportunities in otherwise quiet markets. Ernie concluded the meeting by setting goals for the upcoming week, encouraging traders to remain disciplined, refine their trade setups, and focus on long-term objectives rather than short-term gains in a challenging trading environment.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for October 13

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategy Adjustments and Key Learning Points

• Reflection on the past week’s trading activities, including both successful trades and areas for improvement.

• Analysis of how the current market conditions, characterized by reduced volatility, impacted trade outcomes.

• Discussion on refining the “big ass fly” strategy to adapt to both high and low volatility environments.

• Emphasis on the importance of sticking to the trading plan, particularly in stable market conditions where overtrading is a risk.

• Introduction of new goals for the upcoming week, focusing on improving trade entries and better timing of exits.

• Encouragement to maintain a consistent approach and adapt strategies as market conditions evolve.

Summary

the team reflected on the previous week’s trading performance, identifying both the successes and the areas where further improvements could be made. The meeting focused on how the current market conditions, marked by reduced volatility, affected trade outcomes and prompted a review of key strategies.

Ernie emphasized the importance of refining the “big ass fly” strategy to perform effectively in both high and low volatility environments. The discussion also covered the risks of overtrading during periods of market stability, with a reminder to stick to the planned strategy and not be tempted by market noise.

Looking ahead, new goals for the upcoming week were introduced, including refining trade entries and improving the timing of exits to maximize returns. The session concluded with encouragement to maintain a consistent trading approach while continuing to adapt strategies based on evolving market conditions.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for September 29

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategy Refinements and Key Takeaways

• Review of the previous week’s trading outcomes, including both successful trades and areas requiring improvement.

• Analysis of market behavior, focusing on how sudden shifts influenced trade execution and decision-making.

• Discussion on the effectiveness of the “big ass fly” and other advanced strategies in capturing value during volatile market conditions.

• Emphasis on learning from past mistakes, particularly in terms of risk management and scaling positions according to market conditions.

• Introduction of new goals for the upcoming week, including refining position sizing, managing emotions during stressful trades, and improving the timing of entries and exits.

• Encouragement to maintain a consistent process while staying flexible in the face of changing market environments.

Summary

the team reflected on the past week’s trading activities, analyzing both the successful trades and the areas where adjustments are needed. A major focus was on understanding how the week’s market behavior, particularly the sharp shifts, affected trade execution and decision-making processes. The effectiveness of the “big ass fly” strategy was evaluated, with a focus on how it performed under volatile conditions and how it could be further refined.

Ernie emphasized the importance of learning from mistakes, particularly in the areas of risk management and position sizing. The team was encouraged to remain disciplined and adapt strategies based on the lessons learned from the previous week’s market dynamics.

Looking ahead, the group set new goals for the upcoming week, with a focus on refining position sizing, improving emotional control during high-stress trades, and enhancing the timing of trade entries and exits. The meeting closed with a reminder to stick to a consistent process, even while adapting to the evolving market landscape.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for September 22

Posted on by Conor Browne

Lessons Learned and Strategy Refinements

• Reflection on the past week’s trading results, including both successes and areas for improvement.

• Analysis of the effectiveness of specific strategies, such as the “big ass fly” and out-of-the-money flies, in various market conditions.

• Discussion on the importance of process over outcomes, reinforcing the need for disciplined execution regardless of short-term results.

• Identification of recurring challenges, including managing trades in low-volatility environments and avoiding the temptation to overtrade.

• Emphasis on continuous learning and adjustment, with a focus on refining strategies based on observed market behavior and personal performance.

• Setting goals for the upcoming week, including specific areas of focus such as improving position sizing and better timing of trades.

Summary

the group took a step back to reflect on the trading activities of the past week. The discussion began with a review of both successful trades and areas where improvement is needed, with a particular focus on the performance of strategies like the “big ass fly” and out-of-the-money flies under different market conditions.

Ernie emphasized the importance of adhering to the principle of process over outcomes, stressing that disciplined execution should remain a priority even when short-term results are disappointing. The group also identified recurring challenges, such as managing trades effectively in low-volatility environments and resisting the urge to overtrade in search of gains.

The session highlighted the importance of continuous learning and strategy refinement, encouraging traders to adjust their approaches based on the lessons learned from the past week. Goals for the upcoming week were set, including a focus on improving position sizing and timing of trades, to better align with market conditions and personal trading objectives.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for September 2

Posted on by Conor Browne

Preparing for Increased Volatility and Strategic Adjustments

• Market Overview and Low Volatility: Ernie discussed the current state of the market, noting the low volatility levels despite ongoing economic uncertainties and the market’s position near Friday’s close.

• Economic Reports Impact: Highlighted the upcoming economic reports for the week, including ISM manufacturing, Jolts, ADP, and unemployment claims, which are expected to influence market movements.

• Global Liquidity and Market Dynamics: Addressed the influence of excess global liquidity on market behavior, predicting that this could drive market gains but also fuel inflation.

• Historical Performance of September: Noted that September is historically the worst month for market performance, which could impact trading strategies and increase volatility.

•Strategic Adjustments with Butterfly Trades: Emphasized the importance of adjusting butterfly trade widths based on the current volatility environment, using ranges between 10 and 20, with potential adjustments depending on the day’s market dynamics.

•Trading Futures and Timing: Provided guidance on the optimal times for trading futures, highlighting the importance of aligning trades with key economic report releases and market openings for maximum impact.

Summary

Ernie provided an overview of the current market conditions, emphasizing the low volatility levels despite various economic uncertainties. He noted that the market was near Friday’s close, and trading volumes were expected to be light due to the Labor Day holiday.

Ernie outlined the key economic reports scheduled for the week, including ISM manufacturing data, Jolts, ADP, and unemployment claims, which are anticipated to have a significant impact on market movements. He highlighted concerns about the recent substantial revisions in employment data, which had previously been inflated by nearly a million jobs, casting doubt on the accuracy of official figures.

The discussion also touched on the influence of global liquidity on market dynamics, with Ernie predicting that as long as excess liquidity remains, the market will continue to rise, though this may also contribute to inflationary pressures. He pointed out that September is historically the worst month for market performance, which could lead to increased volatility and potential opportunities for traders using well-structured strategies.

Ernie emphasized the need to adjust butterfly trade widths based on current volatility levels, suggesting a range between 10 and 20, with flexibility to adapt to changes in market conditions. He also provided guidance on trading futures, advising that the best times to trade are often around the release of key economic reports and during the morning session when market activity is highest.

Overall, the session prepared participants for the upcoming trading week by highlighting the importance of strategic adjustments, vigilance in monitoring economic data, and maintaining disciplined risk management practices in anticipation of increased market volatility.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for August 25

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Economic Uncertainty and Strategic Risk Management

• Economic Data Impact on Market Sentiment: Discussed the unusual market behavior in response to recent economic data, particularly focusing on the unexpected changes in employment reports and their implications.

• Fed’s Potential Rate Cut: Analyzed the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cut, speculating on a 50 basis point reduction and its potential effects on market volatility.

• Volume Profile and Structural Analysis: Highlighted the importance of using volume profile to identify structural market levels, which are critical for strategic trade entries.

• Risk Management in Uncertain Times: Emphasized the necessity of maintaining disciplined risk management strategies, especially when market conditions are driven by unexpected economic news.

• Psychological Resilience in Trading: Stressed the importance of mental toughness and maintaining a clear trading plan amid market fluctuations and conflicting economic signals.

• Continuous Adaptation and Learning: Encouraged participants to continuously adapt their strategies in response to evolving market conditions and to stay informed about global economic trends.

Summary

Ernie and the participants discussed the unusual market behavior in response to recent economic data, particularly the unexpected revisions in employment reports. The conversation focused on the implications of these revisions and how they contradict the previously optimistic narrative provided by the Federal Reserve.

Ernie speculated on the possibility of the Fed implementing a 50 basis point rate cut and the potential short-term market rally followed by a more significant downturn. He emphasized the importance of using volume profile to identify key structural levels in the market, which are crucial for making strategic trade entries, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

Risk management was a central theme, with Ernie stressing the importance of maintaining disciplined strategies despite the unpredictable market conditions. He advised traders to be psychologically resilient and to adhere to their trading plans, even when faced with conflicting economic signals.

The session concluded with a reminder for traders to continuously adapt their strategies and stay informed about global economic trends, ensuring they are prepared for the potential volatility ahead. The meeting reinforced the value of strategic planning, disciplined risk management, and ongoing education in navigating the complexities of the market.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for August 18

Posted on by Conor Browne

Building Trading Confidence Through Routine and Strategic Decision-Making

• Put/Call Ratio Discussion: Addressed how traders use the put/call ratio to spot market extremes, though it has recently proven unreliable in predicting market behavior.

• Volatility Spike Analysis: Highlighted unusual market behavior during a significant volatility spike, which had minimal long-term impact despite being the third-largest in history.

• Paper Trading and Confidence: Provided guidance on when traders should move from paper trading to live trading, suggesting at least six months of consistent results before transitioning.

• Emphasizing Small Wins: Encouraged traders to focus on capturing small, consistent wins as part of an effective risk management strategy.

• Trend Following and Market Distribution: Stressed the importance of trading with the market trend, explaining how trend-following enhances profitability and captures larger market moves.

• Timid Trading and Aggression: Ernie reflected on his recent timid trading and emphasized the need for taking more aggressive trades when market conditions permit to maximize returns.

Summary

Ernie led a discussion on various topics related to trading strategies and market behavior. The meeting opened with an analysis of the put/call ratio, a tool traditionally used to spot market extremes, though Ernie noted that it has recently been less effective at providing accurate signals, especially during the recent volatility spike.

Ernie reflected on a significant market event: the third-largest volatility spike in history. He noted that despite the dramatic nature of the spike, it had virtually no lasting impact on the market, which he found unusual. This led to further exploration of how market anomalies can sometimes defy expectations.

The discussion transitioned to paper trading, with Ernie advising traders to spend at least six months working on consistent results before moving to live trading. He emphasized the importance of confidence and familiarity with trade execution.

A key takeaway from the meeting was the importance of focusing on small, consistent wins. Ernie encouraged traders to capture these wins to offset losses and ensure profitability. He also stressed the importance of trading with the trend, explaining how this strategy increases the likelihood of capturing significant market moves and aligns with market distribution patterns.

Ernie concluded by reflecting on his own trading behavior, noting that he had been trading too timidly in recent months. He emphasized that traders should take advantage of favorable market conditions by being more aggressive with their position sizes and trade frequency when appropriate, to achieve better returns.

Overall, the session highlighted the importance of developing trading confidence, following the trend, and focusing on small, consistent wins to maintain profitability in the long term.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for August 11

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Trade Execution and Consistent Profit Management

• Fundamentals of Risk Management: Emphasized the importance of learning to manage drawdowns and maintaining consistent risk control as the foundation of successful trading.

• Routine and Habit Development: Discussed the critical role of developing and refining trading routines, focusing on consistency and continuous improvement.

• Understanding Market Structures: Highlighted the use of volume profile to accurately identify market structures and make informed trading decisions based on actual market trades.

• Profit Management Strategies: Stressed the importance of taking small profits consistently, which contributes to overall profitability and reduces risk exposure.

• Trading Psychology: Addressed the need for mental toughness in trading, emphasizing the discipline required to make decisions under pressure and stick to the trading plan.

• Use of Technical Tools: Encouraged traders to integrate volume profile with other technical tools to enhance decision-making, especially in identifying optimal entry and exit points.

Summary

Ernie focused on the critical aspects of risk management, emphasizing the importance of learning to manage drawdowns and maintaining consistent control over trading risks. He discussed how these fundamentals are essential for long-term success in trading.

The session highlighted the significance of developing and refining trading routines, encouraging participants to focus on consistency and continuous improvement. Ernie stressed that these routines are the backbone of effective trading and should be practiced and perfected over time.

A key part of the discussion was the use of volume profile to understand market structures. Ernie explained that volume profile provides a clear view of actual market trades, making it a more reliable tool for identifying support and resistance levels compared to other methods.

Ernie also discussed profit management strategies, advising traders to focus on consistently taking small profits. This approach not only contributes to overall profitability but also helps in reducing risk exposure. He emphasized that building the habit of taking small profits is crucial for managing trades effectively.

The meeting also addressed the psychological aspects of trading, particularly the need for mental toughness. Ernie emphasized that traders must develop the discipline to make decisions under pressure and adhere to their trading plans, even when the market is challenging.

Finally, Ernie encouraged traders to integrate volume profile with other technical tools to enhance their decision-making process. He suggested that using these tools in combination can help traders identify optimal entry and exit points, leading to better trade execution and outcomes.

Overall, the session reinforced the importance of consistent risk management, disciplined trade execution, and the strategic use of technical tools to navigate the complexities of the market successfully.