Category Archives: Retrospective

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for August 4

Posted on by Conor Browne

Optimizing Trade Execution and Market Analysis

• Butterfly Calculator Usage: Detailed explanation of how to use the butterfly calculator to determine P&L, maximum profit, and how to log trades accurately.

• Trade Strategy and Volatility: Discussed the criteria for choosing different trade strategies based on volatility levels, including when to use the Batman strategy.

• Stochastic Strategy Selector: Explained the use of the stochastic strategy selector for deciding between different trade setups based on current market conditions.

• Market Structure Analysis: Emphasized the importance of understanding market structures and the impact of geopolitical events on market movements.

• Risk Management: Stressed the need for proper risk management, particularly in high volatility environments, and adjusting trade sizes accordingly.

• Learning and Adaptation: Encouraged continuous learning and adaptation of strategies based on real-time market behavior and participant experiences.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting on August 4th, Ernie provided a comprehensive explanation of the butterfly calculator, demonstrating how to use it to determine P&L, maximum profit, and accurately log trades. He addressed participant questions and clarified the process for calculating credits using the calculator.

The discussion also covered trade strategy selection based on volatility levels. Ernie explained the criteria for using the Batman strategy, emphasizing that it is more suitable during higher volatility periods. He demonstrated the use of the stochastic strategy selector, which helps traders decide between different setups based on current market conditions.

Ernie highlighted the importance of understanding market structures and how geopolitical events can impact market movements. He provided insights into managing trades effectively, particularly in high volatility environments, and adjusting trade sizes to mitigate risks.

Throughout the meeting, Ernie stressed the need for continuous learning and adaptation. He encouraged participants to refine their strategies based on real-time market behavior and shared experiences. The session concluded with an emphasis on disciplined trading practices, effective risk management, and the use of advanced tools to navigate dynamic market conditions successfully.

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Sunday Retrospective for July 28

Posted on by Conor Browne

Developing Mental Toughness and Strategic Consistency in Trading

• Consistency in Trading: Emphasized the critical goal of achieving consistent profitability and trading at a professional level by mastering drawdowns and minimizing losses.

• Mental Toughness: Highlighted the importance of mental toughness and disciplined decision-making to avoid significant losses and manage trades effectively.

• Profit Management Framework: Discussed the profit management framework, including the importance of staging trades and having exit strategies ready to protect profits.

• Market Structure and Volatility: Analyzed recent market behavior and structural levels using volume profile to identify support and resistance zones.

• Technical Analysis and Execution: Explained the significance of technical analysis, particularly volume profile, in predicting market movements and informing trade decisions.

• Routine Development: Stressed the necessity of developing and adhering to a consistent trading routine to enhance decision-making and manage market changes effectively.

Summary

Ernie emphasized the importance of achieving consistent profitability and trading at a professional level by mastering drawdowns and minimizing losses. He highlighted that the first step towards this goal is learning how to control the drawdowns in returns and avoid significant losses.

Ernie discussed the importance of mental toughness in trading, explaining that disciplined decision-making is crucial to managing trades effectively and avoiding large losses. He introduced the profit management framework, which involves staging trades and having exit strategies ready to protect profits when certain conditions are met.

The meeting included an analysis of recent market behavior, with Ernie demonstrating the use of volume profile to identify key structural levels such as support and resistance zones. He explained how these levels can inform trade decisions and help traders navigate market volatility.

Ernie also emphasized the importance of developing and adhering to a consistent trading routine. He advised traders to establish a routine that includes regular reviews of trades, adherence to strategic plans, and readiness to adapt to market changes. This consistency in routine helps enhance decision-making and manage the dynamic nature of trading.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices, effective risk management, and the use of technical analysis tools to achieve consistent profitability and navigate market dynamics successfully.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for July 21

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Personal Retrospectives and Strategic Market Analysis

• Personal Retrospective Importance: Emphasized the need for traders to conduct their own retrospectives, reviewing results, processes, routines, and analytics regularly.

• Trade Management: Ernie shared his approach to trade management, including the decision-making process for not entering trades when unable to manage them effectively.

• Market Outlook and Trends: Analyzed recent market behavior, identifying a downturn trend and discussing the implications for future trades.

• Technical Patterns: Highlighted the significance of identifying technical patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and three black crows for market predictions.

• Volume Profile Utilization: Stressed the importance of volume profile analysis to identify structural elements and make informed trading decisions.

• Trading Rules Clarification: Provided clear guidelines for trade execution based on market trends, including the importance of waiting for pullbacks into structural elements before entering trades.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting on July 21st, Ernie emphasized the importance of traders conducting their own personal retrospectives. He advised reviewing results, processes, routines, and analytics regularly to ensure continuous improvement. Ernie shared his approach to managing trades, explaining that he avoids entering trades when he cannot manage them effectively, which helps in reducing mistakes and potential losses.

The session included a detailed analysis of the current market outlook, identifying a downturn trend. Ernie discussed the significance of technical patterns such as bearish engulfing candles and three black crows, which are indicators of potential market movements. He highlighted the importance of volume profile analysis for identifying structural elements that serve as key support and resistance levels in the market.

Ernie also provided clear guidelines for trade execution, emphasizing the importance of waiting for pullbacks into structural elements before entering trades. He clarified that traders should not use tools like the profit taker to dictate market direction but rather rely on their analysis and understanding of market trends.

Overall, the session reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices, continuous personal retrospectives, and a thorough understanding of technical patterns and volume profile analysis to navigate market dynamics effectively.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for July 14

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Insights and Adjustments in Anticipation of Market Volatility

• Premonition and Market Outlook: Ernie shared a vivid premonition of everything “going up in flames,” hinting at significant market and societal upheaval in the coming months.

• Market Behavior and Volatility: Discussed the recent lack of market reaction to significant political events and the potential return of increased volatility, which could benefit trading strategies.

• Economic and Political Influences: Analyzed the impacts of global liquidity, economic reports, and political decisions on market stability, with a focus on the Fed’s attempts to manage a “soft landing.”

• Trade Management Techniques: Addressed questions on trade execution, particularly around capturing exit values for options and using specific trading platforms for managing trades.

• Tool Development and Utilization: Discussed ongoing enhancements to trading tools like the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle, aiming to improve trading efficiency and decision-making.

• Adaptation and Long-Term Strategy: Emphasized the need for traders to adapt strategies to market conditions, maintain low risks, and focus on long-term consistency and incremental PNL growth.

Summary

In this Sunday retrospective meeting, Ernie opened with a personal reflection on a vivid premonition suggesting significant upheavals in the market and broader society. He noted that despite recent significant political events, the market has shown little reaction, but he anticipates a return to higher volatility, which could present new trading opportunities.

The discussion delved into the broader economic context, highlighting how global liquidity and the Fed’s efforts to engineer a “soft landing” are impacting market stability. Ernie expressed skepticism about the Fed’s ability to achieve this goal, suggesting that more significant disruptions may be on the horizon.

Participants asked questions about trade management, particularly on capturing exit values for options and managing trades on various platforms. Ernie provided guidance on using tools like Thinkorswim and discussed the complexities involved in executing trades, especially under low volatility conditions.

The meeting also covered the development and utilization of trading tools such as the Playbook and Zero DTE Oracle. Ernie emphasized the importance of these tools in improving trading efficiency and making informed decisions. He encouraged traders to focus on incremental improvements, risk management, and maintaining a consistent approach to building their PNL over the long term.

Overall, the session underscored the importance of adapting to changing market conditions, leveraging advanced tools, and developing a disciplined, long-term trading strategy to navigate potential volatility and achieve sustained success.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for Sunday July 7

Posted on by Conor Browne

Evaluating Market Structures and Volume Profile Mastery

• Volume Profile Techniques: Emphasized the importance of marking up volume profile lines and understanding their implications for support and resistance levels in market trading.

• Trade Execution Strategies: Discussed the procedures for using TradingView for analysis and Thinkorswim for trade execution, ensuring efficient workflow and minimizing unnecessary work.

• Market Timing and Volatility: Highlighted the significance of timing in market entry, especially between 9:30 AM and 11:00 AM when market volatility is typically higher.

• Use of Indicators: Detailed the use of horizontal and vertical lines in volume profile analysis to mark high volume nodes and low volume wells, helping traders identify key market structures.

• Routine and Habit Formation: Stressed the need for developing a daily routine for market analysis, including pre-market checks, economic report reviews, and continuous practice of volume profile analysis.

• Tool Utilization and Improvements: Discussed using TradingView’s real-time data feed for accurate analysis and the potential integration of new tools to enhance trading efficiency.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting, Ernie focused on the critical role of volume profile analysis in trading, demonstrating how to mark up volume profile lines to identify key support and resistance levels. He emphasized the importance of using TradingView for analysis and Thinkorswim for executing trades, ensuring an efficient workflow without duplicating efforts.

Ernie discussed the significance of timing in market entry, particularly between 9:30 AM and 11:00 AM when market volatility is typically higher. He provided detailed guidance on using horizontal and vertical lines in volume profile analysis to mark high volume nodes and low volume wells, which are crucial for understanding market structure.

The meeting also covered the necessity of developing a daily routine for market analysis, including pre-market checks, reviewing economic reports, and continuous practice of volume profile analysis. Ernie highlighted the importance of consistency and habit formation in achieving long-term trading success.

Additionally, participants discussed the potential for new tools and enhancements to improve trading efficiency, with Ernie stressing the importance of staying updated with real-time data feeds and integrating useful tools like TradingView for comprehensive market analysis. The session concluded with a reminder to log and journal all trading activities to evaluate performance and make informed adjustments.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for June 30

Posted on by Conor Browne

Emphasizing Volume Profile and Strategic Planning

• Volume Profile Implementation: Reaffirmed the importance of volume profile analysis as a leading indicator and discussed its role in identifying market structure and liquidity areas.

• Tool Improvements: Participants suggested improvements for the profit taker and simulator tools, to be discussed in future meetings.

• Personal Insights and Achievements: Shared personal anecdotes, including Ernie’s experience at a dog show and a participant’s real-life trading success using the volume profile.

• Strategic Visualization: Highlighted the role of visualization in preparing for trading, drawing parallels with Olympic training techniques for enhanced performance.

• Market Structure Analysis: Demonstrated a step-by-step process for analyzing market structure using volume profile, with an emphasis on identifying high and low liquidity areas.

• Preparation for Trading Week: Encouraged participants to plan their trades in advance, using volume profile insights to identify potential entry points and create scenarios for market movements.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting, Ernie reiterated the importance of volume profile analysis in trading, describing it as a leading indicator that provides real-time insights into market structure and liquidity. Participants discussed potential improvements for the profit taker and simulator tools, with suggestions to be elaborated in future sessions. Ernie shared personal stories, including a dog show experience, and emphasized the value of visualization in strategic preparation, likening it to the training methods of Olympic athletes. The meeting included a detailed demonstration of volume profile analysis, highlighting how to identify significant market structures and liquidity areas. Ernie encouraged traders to prepare for the upcoming week by planning their trades in advance, leveraging volume profile insights to identify potential entry points and develop various market scenarios. The session underscored the cumulative value of small, consistent profits and the importance of disciplined, strategic trading practices.

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Sunday Retrospective for June 23

Posted on by Conor Browne

Reflections and Adjustments

• Review of Past Performance: The meeting opened with a review of the past week’s trading activities, focusing on the successes and areas for improvement.

• Adjustment of Strategies: Discussions on adjusting trading strategies based on recent market behavior and outcomes from the previous week.

• Feedback from Participants: Participants shared their personal experiences and feedback, which contributed to a collective learning environment.

• Identification of Challenges: The team identified key challenges faced during the week and brainstormed potential solutions and adjustments.

• Educational Focus: The retrospective included a segment dedicated to educational development, enhancing understanding of complex trading concepts.

• Planning for the Upcoming Week: Concluded with planning and setting objectives for the upcoming week, ensuring alignment with overall trading goals.

Summary

The Sunday Retrospective for June 23 provided a comprehensive platform for reflection and strategic planning. The meeting facilitated a thorough review of the past week’s trading activities, highlighting both achievements and areas needing improvement. Through participant feedback and collaborative discussion, the team identified key challenges and adjusted their trading strategies accordingly. Educational segments were incorporated to bolster understanding of complex concepts, enriching the team’s skill set. The session concluded with clear objectives set for the upcoming week, aligning with broader trading goals, ensuring the team was prepared to navigate future market conditions effectively.

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Sunday Retrospective for June 9

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Low Volatility: Strategies and Adjustments in a Quiet Market

• Risk Management Focus: Emphasized the paramount importance of minimizing risk and preserving capital, citing that drawdowns are the primary inhibitors of compound annual growth.

• Strategic Trading: Discussion on using a small portion of the trading account to maintain minimal risk exposure, complementing this with investment in interest-bearing accounts like money markets or treasury funds to balance out any potential drawdowns.

• Interest Rates and Trading Profit: Covered how interest from brokerages could mitigate trading risks, with a particular focus on achieving a ‘zero-risk’ level by balancing drawdowns with steady interest income.

• Economic Impact on Trading Strategy: The role of economic events and reports on trading decisions was considered, with a particular emphasis on sizing trades based on anticipated market movements triggered by these events.

• Volatility and Market Trends: Discussed the nature of the current market’s volatility and the implications for trading strategies, including adjustments necessary when dealing with prolonged periods of low volatility.

• Reflective Strategy Discussion: Engaged in retrospective reflection on past trades and strategies, analyzing what worked, what didn’t, and potential adjustments to enhance trading outcomes in current market conditions.

Summary

During the Sunday retrospective meeting on June 9, the primary focus was on risk management and adjustments necessary in periods of low market volatility. Ernie emphasized the importance of preserving capital over making profits and suggested that reducing risk exposure, combined with investing in interest-bearing accounts, could significantly enhance traders’ financial stability. The discussion also touched on how economic reports and anticipated events should influence trade sizing and strategy. Moreover, there was a detailed examination of how low volatility affects trade profitability and the necessity of adjusting trading tactics to suit current market conditions. Ernie and other participants shared personal experiences and strategies, such as the benefits of reducing position sizes and the potential shifts needed for the upcoming election season, which could affect market liquidity and volatility.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for June 2

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Trading Volatility and Enhancing Skills

• Performance Reflections: Participants shared their trading experiences, noting significant reversals in their month’s performance thanks to specific trades that turned profitable towards the end of the month.

• Volatility and Trading Strategy: The discussion emphasized the impact of market volatility on trading strategies. Ernie pointed out the fluctuating nature of volatility and its effects on trade outcomes, underscoring the importance of adapting strategies to current market conditions.

• Educational Progression: Ernie discussed educational courses like the white belt and green belt, aiming to deepen participants’ understanding of trading strategies and market analysis.

• Community and Challenges: The retrospective covered the value of community engagement through challenges and the educational content provided, encouraging active participation to enhance trading skills.

• Future Plans and Suggestions: Suggestions for future course content and strategies were solicited from members, indicating a collaborative approach to learning and improvement in trading practices.

Summary

The Sunday Retrospective on June 2 provided a comprehensive platform for traders to reflect on their monthly performance, discuss the impact of market volatility on their strategies, and plan for future learning through structured educational courses. Ernie highlighted the importance of adapting to market conditions and the benefit of community involvement in continuous learning. Members shared personal trading anecdotes that demonstrated the practical challenges and strategies in navigating fluctuating markets. The session also included discussions on improving and expanding educational offerings to better equip traders with the necessary skills and knowledge.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for May 27

Posted on by Conor Browne

Optimizing Trading Logs and Enhancing Learning Through AI

• Technical Meeting Adjustments: The session begins with an adjustment due to a technical glitch and a note on the meeting’s rescheduling because of the Memorial Day holiday.

• Focus on Trade Logging Practices: Participants discuss the importance of accurately logging trades, specifically focusing on box trading and the correct documentation of entry and exit points.

• Handling Expiring Options: Detailed guidance on how to log expiring trades, with suggestions on using account statements or simulation tools to determine final values.

• Introduction of AI Tools: Ernie introduces AI tools for video creation and discusses potential applications for educational content and marketing, exploring how these tools can streamline content production.

• New Trading Platform Features: Discussion about the new ‘Dojo’ platform feature that allows for high-speed trade simulation, aiming to enhance traders’ learning and experience.

• Interactive Q&A Session: The retrospective concludes with an interactive Q&A, addressing participants’ questions about strategy, trade logging, and the use of AI and new platform tools.

Summary

The Sunday Retrospective focused on several key aspects of trading practice improvement and technological enhancements in trading education. Ernie and the participants discussed the best practices for logging trades, particularly emphasizing the correct way to document box trades and manage options nearing expiration. There was a significant focus on leveraging new technology, such as AI, to improve educational content delivery and marketing efforts. Ernie introduced a new trading simulation feature, ‘Dojo’, designed to help traders practice and refine their strategies at an accelerated pace. The meeting was interactive, with Ernie responding to various queries about new platform features, AI integration, and general trading strategies, ensuring participants left with a clear understanding of the tools and methods to enhance their trading practices.