Tag Archives: Market Predictions

Daily Meeting for Tuesday April 15

Executing Without Lag and Closing the Confidence Gap

• Skipped early clean trigger in energy, despite pre-market plan being aligned and level hitting perfectly.

• Team discussed waiting for ‘perfect price action’, which led to missed entries as the move accelerated.

• Ernie emphasized conviction comes from the prep, not the live candle shape—it’s either a setup or it isn’t.

• Reminder to use starter size to overcome hesitation, allowing flexibility while still participating.

• Overtrading after the miss surfaced again, with multiple C-tier setups taken midday in an attempt to “catch up.”

• Tomorrow’s focus: full trust in the first A-tier trigger—execute without edits, then manage with clarity.

Summary

the team reviewed a missed energy sector breakout that had been clearly prepped and triggered early—but wasn’t taken. Traders cited concerns about the “look” of the price action, despite it meeting every technical requirement laid out that morning.

Ernie addressed the confidence gap directly: if the plan is built correctly, the live execution doesn’t need to feel perfect—it needs to happen. The team re-committed to the use of starter size on first-touch triggers to get positioned without hesitation and manage from there.

Post-miss behavior was also reviewed. After skipping the clean setup, several traders overcompensated with unnecessary midday trades, none of which had the quality or R:R of the missed A-tier opportunity.

To reset, tomorrow’s focus is simple: trust the prep. When the first A-tier setup triggers, it must be taken without edits. Execute, manage, learn. But don’t delay.

Sunday Retrospective for March 23

Tightening Execution and Reinforcing Sector Focus

• Consistent hesitation on early-session breakouts, particularly in the tech sector, resulting in missed entries despite clear signals.

• Refinement of stop-loss strategies, implementing ATR-based dynamic stops to better manage risk during increased volatility.

• Review of profit-taking discipline, with several trades closed prematurely, cutting short potential gains on confirmed trends.

• Shift in focus toward small-cap healthcare stocks, after mid-week data showed increased institutional buying and volume surges.

• Emphasis on avoiding overtrading during midday sessions, where choppy price action led to a lower win rate and increased risk exposure.

• Commitment to pre-market preparation, ensuring readiness for fast-moving opportunities and reducing hesitation at open.

Summary

the team reviewed execution across the previous week, focusing on consistent hesitation during early-session breakouts, particularly within tech names. Ernie stressed the importance of pre-market preparation and being ready to act decisively when trade signals align.

Refinements were made to the team’s stop-loss strategy, moving to ATR-based dynamic stops to better accommodate market volatility and reduce unnecessary stop-outs. There was also a review of profit-taking, with an acknowledgment that some trades were closed too early, sacrificing additional upside on solid trends.

The team shifted sector focus toward small-cap healthcare stocks, following data showing increased institutional participation and volume spikes. Ernie emphasized the need to avoid overtrading during midday chop and reinforced the value of maintaining patience until high-probability setups emerge.

The session concluded with a renewed commitment to structured pre-market routines, ensuring the team is ready to capitalize on key opportunities without hesitation.

Daily Meeting for Friday March 14

Executing on Sector Strength and Tightening Trade Management

• Late entry on early financial sector moves, with focus on improving readiness for pre-market planned setups.

• Adjustment to the ‘big ass fly’ strategy, shortening trade duration to capture rapid moves in small-cap names.

• Refinement of stop-loss placement, using volatility-based levels to prevent unnecessary stop-outs in choppy conditions.

• Review of missed healthcare setups, emphasizing the importance of rotating focus to emerging sector strength.

• Reinforcement of avoiding FOMO-driven trades, ensuring setups meet full criteria before execution.

• Implementation of post-trade review sessions, aimed at identifying execution gaps and improving future performance.

Summary

the team reviewed missed opportunities in the financial sector due to hesitation on early planned setups. Ernie emphasized the importance of executing pre-market plans without delay when confirmation levels are hit.

The ‘big ass fly’ strategy was refined, with an emphasis on shorter trade durations to capitalize on sharp moves in small-cap stocks. The team discussed refining stop-loss placements, introducing volatility-based adjustments to avoid being prematurely stopped out in sideways markets.

Missed healthcare setups were also highlighted, prompting a shift in focus toward sectors showing relative strength. Ernie reinforced the importance of avoiding trades driven by FOMO, ensuring every setup aligns with technical criteria before entering.

The session closed with a plan to implement post-trade review sessions, focusing on bridging gaps in execution and continuously improving decision-making processes.

Daily Meeting for Friday December 13

Refining Volatility Strategies and Navigating Sector-Specific Trends

• Analysis of the unexpected market reaction to central bank announcements and its impact on trade setups.

• Refinements to the “big ass fly” strategy to better capture opportunities in financial and tech sectors.

• Introduction of a sector-specific scanning tool to identify emerging high-probability opportunities.

• Discuss how external factors, like commodity price shifts, influence equity markets.

• Emphasis on learning from missed opportunities due to delayed trade execution.

• Plans to test a tighter correlation between stop-loss adjustments and intraday volatility changes.

Summary

the team analyzed how central bank announcements influenced recent market behavior, causing unexpected shifts in several sectors. Ernie led a discussion on refining the “big ass fly” strategy to better align with opportunities in the financial and tech sectors, which showed notable activity.

A sector-specific scanning tool was introduced to assist in identifying emerging high-probability opportunities, particularly in markets influenced by macroeconomic trends like commodity price shifts. The group reviewed trades that were delayed or missed, exploring ways to address execution timing issues.

The team also planned to test a tighter correlation between stop-loss adjustments and intraday volatility changes to enhance risk management. Ernie concluded the session by emphasizing the importance of aligning strategies with sector-specific trends and learning from recent trade outcomes to drive improvement.

Daily Meeting for Wednesday October 16

Fine-Tuning Trade Strategy and Risk Control in Sideways Markets

• Focus on navigating sideways markets and adjusting trade strategies to optimize for range-bound conditions.

• Discussion on refining the “big ass fly” strategy to perform better in non-trending environments.

• Emphasis on tighter risk management, particularly using stop-losses and position sizing to protect capital in uncertain market movements.

• Review of key technical indicators to identify market turning points in range-bound conditions.

• Exploration of advanced risk mitigation techniques, including dynamic adjustments based on real-time market data.

• Encouragement to remain disciplined and avoid forcing trades when the market lacks clear directional movement.

Summary

the group concentrated on the challenges of trading in a sideways market, where clear trends are lacking. Ernie led a discussion on how to adjust strategies, particularly the “big ass fly,” to perform better in range-bound conditions. He emphasized the importance of refining risk management practices, including the use of tighter stop-losses and more conservative position sizing to protect capital.

The session also explored key technical indicators that could help identify potential market turning points, allowing traders to time entries and exits more effectively. Ernie introduced advanced risk mitigation techniques, recommending dynamic adjustments based on real-time market data to better manage trades in uncertain conditions.

The meeting concluded with a reminder to remain disciplined and avoid forcing trades in a sideways market, reinforcing the importance of patience and strategy adherence in non-trending environments.

Sunday Retrospective for October 13

Strategy Adjustments and Key Learning Points

• Reflection on the past week’s trading activities, including both successful trades and areas for improvement.

• Analysis of how the current market conditions, characterized by reduced volatility, impacted trade outcomes.

• Discussion on refining the “big ass fly” strategy to adapt to both high and low volatility environments.

• Emphasis on the importance of sticking to the trading plan, particularly in stable market conditions where overtrading is a risk.

• Introduction of new goals for the upcoming week, focusing on improving trade entries and better timing of exits.

• Encouragement to maintain a consistent approach and adapt strategies as market conditions evolve.

Summary

the team reflected on the previous week’s trading performance, identifying both the successes and the areas where further improvements could be made. The meeting focused on how the current market conditions, marked by reduced volatility, affected trade outcomes and prompted a review of key strategies.

Ernie emphasized the importance of refining the “big ass fly” strategy to perform effectively in both high and low volatility environments. The discussion also covered the risks of overtrading during periods of market stability, with a reminder to stick to the planned strategy and not be tempted by market noise.

Looking ahead, new goals for the upcoming week were introduced, including refining trade entries and improving the timing of exits to maximize returns. The session concluded with encouragement to maintain a consistent trading approach while continuing to adapt strategies based on evolving market conditions.

Sunday Retrospective for Sunday July 7

Evaluating Market Structures and Volume Profile Mastery

• Volume Profile Techniques: Emphasized the importance of marking up volume profile lines and understanding their implications for support and resistance levels in market trading.

• Trade Execution Strategies: Discussed the procedures for using TradingView for analysis and Thinkorswim for trade execution, ensuring efficient workflow and minimizing unnecessary work.

• Market Timing and Volatility: Highlighted the significance of timing in market entry, especially between 9:30 AM and 11:00 AM when market volatility is typically higher.

• Use of Indicators: Detailed the use of horizontal and vertical lines in volume profile analysis to mark high volume nodes and low volume wells, helping traders identify key market structures.

• Routine and Habit Formation: Stressed the need for developing a daily routine for market analysis, including pre-market checks, economic report reviews, and continuous practice of volume profile analysis.

• Tool Utilization and Improvements: Discussed using TradingView’s real-time data feed for accurate analysis and the potential integration of new tools to enhance trading efficiency.

Summary

In the Sunday retrospective meeting, Ernie focused on the critical role of volume profile analysis in trading, demonstrating how to mark up volume profile lines to identify key support and resistance levels. He emphasized the importance of using TradingView for analysis and Thinkorswim for executing trades, ensuring an efficient workflow without duplicating efforts.

Ernie discussed the significance of timing in market entry, particularly between 9:30 AM and 11:00 AM when market volatility is typically higher. He provided detailed guidance on using horizontal and vertical lines in volume profile analysis to mark high volume nodes and low volume wells, which are crucial for understanding market structure.

The meeting also covered the necessity of developing a daily routine for market analysis, including pre-market checks, reviewing economic reports, and continuous practice of volume profile analysis. Ernie highlighted the importance of consistency and habit formation in achieving long-term trading success.

Additionally, participants discussed the potential for new tools and enhancements to improve trading efficiency, with Ernie stressing the importance of staying updated with real-time data feeds and integrating useful tools like TradingView for comprehensive market analysis. The session concluded with a reminder to log and journal all trading activities to evaluate performance and make informed adjustments.

Daily Meeting for Monday June 24

Strategic Adjustments and Market Insights

• Review of Recent Trades: Discussion on recent trade outcomes and the unexpected market movements that affected trading strategies.

• Analysis of Market Behavior: Detailed analysis of current market trends and how they impact ongoing trading strategies.

• Adjustments to Trading Strategies: Consideration of necessary adjustments in response to market unpredictability and learning from past trade setups.

• Insight on Discipline in Trading: Emphasis on the importance of maintaining discipline in trading despite the market’s volatility.

• Technical Analysis Overview: Overview of key technical indicators and their current readings, influencing the day’s trading decisions.

• Future Market Predictions: Predictions and expectations for the upcoming trading sessions based on current market data and trends.

Summary

During the meeting on June 24, the team reviewed recent trades that were impacted by unexpected market movements, emphasizing the need for strategic adjustments. The discussion highlighted the importance of discipline in trading, especially in volatile markets. Technical analysis was a focal point, with a detailed examination of indicators that shape daily trading decisions. Future market behaviors were predicted, preparing the team for upcoming sessions. This meeting served as a crucial checkpoint for refining strategies and aligning them with the current market landscape.

Daily Meeting for Friday May 24

Strategic Adjustments in Market Dynamics

• Poker and Trading Parallels: Discussion on how poker strategies, especially in risk management and strategic consistency, are analogous to trading strategies.

• Market Liquidity and Trends: Analysis of current market liquidity and the predominance of bullish trends despite occasional pullbacks.

• Gamma Risk in Trading: Detailed explanation of gamma risk and its impact on trading decisions, especially near the profit curve’s peak.

• Trade Strategy Adjustments: Discussion on adjusting trading strategies based on market movements and the importance of maintaining a predefined strategy.

• Statistical Analysis of Market Patterns: Examination of market patterns like the bearish engulfing candle and its statistical relevance to trading decisions.

• Reflections on Trading Decisions: Sharing of personal trading experiences and the lessons learned about maintaining discipline and adhering to strategic plans.

Summary

In this meeting, Ernie delved deep into the parallels between poker playing and trading, emphasizing strategic consistency and risk management. He discussed the current state of market liquidity, noting that despite minor pullbacks, the market trend remains predominantly bullish. A significant part of the discussion focused on gamma risk, highlighting its relevance when traders are near the peak of the profit curve. Ernie also stressed the importance of sticking to a predefined trading strategy, even when the market presents tempting deviations. The team examined statistical patterns in the market, such as the bearish engulfing candle, discussing its frequency and impact on trading decisions. Personal trading stories were shared, underlining the lessons on discipline and the dangers of deviating from one’s strategy. This meeting underscored the importance of consistency, strategic adjustments based on empirical data, and the psychological aspects of trading.

Daily Meeting for Monday April 29

Strategic Patience and Market Preparation: Navigating Low Volatility and Economic Events

• Anticipation of Static Market Activity: Ernie predicts minimal market movement due to the upcoming Federal Reserve meeting and lack of economic reports on the day, suggesting a waiting game among traders.

• Detailed Analysis of Economic Impact: A thorough review of economic reports scheduled for the week is discussed, stressing the importance of these indicators in predicting market volatility and planning trades.

• Technical Analysis of Market Positions: Ernie discusses current market positions, noting the market’s stickiness around a minor node with possibilities of breaking out due to thin liquidity layers.

• Challenges with Technical Setups: Technical difficulties with screen sharing and video resolution during the meeting, impacting the effectiveness of shared analysis.

• Interactive Participant Queries: Members engage actively, asking about specific trading scenarios and strategies which leads to Ernie elaborating on options trading nuances like the pattern day trader rule and effective risk management.

• Preparation for Upcoming Market Events: The team prepares for potential market shifts influenced by major upcoming economic reports, focusing on adjusting trading strategies to accommodate anticipated volatility.

Summary

During this trading strategy meeting, Ernie leads the team through a prediction of limited market movement due to upcoming economic events, particularly the Federal Reserve meeting. He emphasizes the importance of understanding economic reports’ impact on market volatility, crucial for planning effective trading strategies. The session also covers technical trading issues and participant queries, facilitating a comprehensive understanding of current market conditions and effective trading approaches. The discussion underscores readiness for potential market shifts and strategic adaptations necessary for the week’s economic events.