Tag Archives: Price Behavior

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday January 28

Posted on by Conor Browne

Refining Trade Execution and Managing Unpredictable Volatility

• Unexpected Market Reversals: Discussion on how sudden sentiment shifts disrupted trade setups and how to adjust for similar conditions in the future.

• Adapting the “big ass fly” strategy: Modifications to better handle sharp intraday price swings, ensuring quicker reaction times.

• Breakout vs. Fakeout Trades: Review of recent breakouts that failed to hold, with lessons on confirming momentum before entering positions.

• Scaling into Positions Safely: New guidelines for adjusting trade size incrementally rather than committing capital upfront in uncertain conditions.

• Using VWAP as a Decision Tool: Introduction of VWAP levels as a key factor in filtering good vs. bad trade entries.

• Avoiding Overtrading: Recognition of missed opportunities leading to emotional re-entries, emphasizing patience and discipline in execution.

Summary

the team addressed the challenges posed by sudden market reversals that disrupted planned trade setups. Ernie led discussions on modifying the “big ass fly” strategy to improve responsiveness to sharp intraday swings, emphasizing faster reaction times.

A key focus was distinguishing between real breakouts and fakeouts, analyzing failed trades where momentum did not sustain. New guidelines were introduced for scaling into positions gradually instead of committing full capital upfront in volatile conditions.

The use of VWAP (Volume Weighted Average Price) as a decision-making tool was discussed, providing an additional layer of validation for trade entries. The session also addressed the tendency to overtrade after missed opportunities, reinforcing the importance of patience and sticking to well-defined setups. Ernie concluded by emphasizing the need for disciplined execution and adaptability to evolving market conditions.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Friday January 17

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Focus on Volatility and Sector-Specific Adjustments

• Discussion on the week’s closing market trends and their impact on sector-specific performance.

• Refinements to the “big ass fly” strategy for better alignment with volatile conditions in tech and financial markets.

• Emphasis on precision in executing trades within tighter intraday windows to optimize outcomes.

• Review of trades impacted by delayed decisions, proposing strategies for faster execution in volatile sessions.

• Introduction of enhanced stop-loss techniques to manage risks during high-frequency market movements.

• Encouragement to prioritize setups supported by strong technical and macroeconomic indicators.

Summary

the team reflected on the week’s closing trends, focusing on strategies to navigate volatility and sector-specific shifts. Ernie emphasized updates to the “big ass fly” strategy to enhance its responsiveness to dynamic conditions in tech and financial markets.

The importance of precision in executing trades within tighter intraday windows was discussed, with strategies proposed to improve timing and efficiency. Trades affected by delayed decisions were analyzed, identifying ways to accelerate execution in volatile sessions.

Enhanced stop-loss techniques were introduced to better manage risks during high-frequency market movements. Ernie concluded by encouraging the team to focus on setups supported by strong technical and macroeconomic indicators, ensuring disciplined and informed execution in a fast-changing environment.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for January 12

Posted on by Conor Browne

Lessons from Volatility and Strategic Enhancements

• Reflection on the week’s volatile trading environment and its impact on execution strategies.

• Evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy, identifying key adjustments for improved performance during rapid market shifts.

• Analysis of trades that deviated from planned setups, with strategies to address timing and discipline issues.

• Emphasis on refining risk management protocols to better handle intraday volatility spikes.

• Discussion on leveraging geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators to anticipate market trends.

• Goals for the upcoming week include enhancing precision in entries, refining sector-specific strategies, and maintaining discipline.

Summary

the team reviewed the challenges and successes of navigating a volatile trading environment. Ernie led an evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy, highlighting effective adjustments and areas for further improvement to optimize performance during rapid market shifts.

Trades that deviated from planned setups were analyzed, with actionable strategies proposed to improve timing and maintain discipline. Refining risk management protocols was a key focus, particularly in managing intraday volatility spikes.

The session also explored opportunities to leverage geopolitical developments and macroeconomic indicators to anticipate future market trends. Looking ahead, the team set goals to enhance entry precision, refine sector-specific strategies, and stay disciplined in execution. Ernie concluded by emphasizing the importance of applying lessons learned to maintain momentum in the coming week.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Friday December 20

Posted on by Conor Browne

Aligning Execution Precision with Sector Momentum

• Analysis of market reactions to recent macroeconomic announcements and their effect on momentum trading.

• Adjustments to the “big ass fly” strategy to better exploit short-term opportunities in the financial sector.

• Emphasis on timing precision, focusing on entries and exits within narrower intraday windows.

• Review of risk exposure levels, with a focus on scaling down positions in response to increased volatility.

• Identification of underperforming setups and strategies for improving consistency across trades.

• Encouragement to monitor emerging market indicators that may signal larger shifts in sector behavior.

Summary

the team analyzed market responses to recent macroeconomic announcements, emphasizing the influence on momentum trading opportunities. Ernie highlighted adjustments to the “big ass fly” strategy aimed at capitalizing on short-term trends, particularly within the financial sector.

The discussion focused on improving timing precision, stressing the importance of executing trades within narrower intraday windows to optimize outcomes. Risk exposure levels were reviewed, with recommendations for scaling down positions in response to heightened volatility.

Underperforming setups were analyzed to identify areas for improving consistency and refining execution. The team was encouraged to closely monitor emerging market indicators for potential larger sector shifts that could present significant opportunities. Ernie concluded by reinforcing the importance of strategic focus and disciplined execution in today’s dynamic market environment.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday November 26

Posted on by Conor Browne

Refining Risk and Strategy in Anticipation of Market Changes

• Discussion on managing expectations as market volumes decrease ahead of the holiday season.

• Review of the “big ass fly” strategy, focusing on adjustments to capture value in thinning markets.

• Emphasis on using technical indicators to identify potential opportunities amid limited activity.

• Practical advice on scaling back position sizes to reduce risk exposure in a low-liquidity environment.

• Exploration of historical holiday market patterns to guide strategy adjustments.

• Encouragement to focus on quality setups and avoid forced trades during slow periods.

Summary

the team concentrated on adapting strategies to anticipate changes in market activity as volumes decrease during the holiday season. Ernie emphasized the importance of refining the “big ass fly” strategy to optimize performance in thinning markets while maintaining capital preservation.

The session highlighted the role of technical indicators in spotting potential opportunities despite limited activity. Practical advice was provided on scaling back position sizes to reduce risk exposure in a low-liquidity environment.

The team also explored historical holiday market patterns to better understand how to adjust strategies for the upcoming period. Ernie concluded by encouraging everyone to focus on high-quality setups, reminding them to avoid forcing trades during slow trading days.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday October 15

Posted on by Conor Browne

Refining Trade Execution and Managing Risk in Low Volatility

• Discussion on adapting strategies to fit the current low volatility market conditions.

• Emphasis on refining trade execution, focusing on timing entries and exits for better profitability.

• Review of the “big ass fly” strategy, with adjustments suggested for use in low volatility environments.

• Introduction of more conservative risk management techniques, including smaller position sizes and tighter stop-losses.

• Analysis of external factors affecting market stability, with a focus on economic and geopolitical influences.

• Encouragement to maintain a disciplined, patient approach, avoiding overtrading in a low volatility market.

Summary

the team concentrated on adjusting trading strategies to better fit the current low volatility market environment. Ernie emphasized the importance of refining trade execution, particularly focusing on the timing of entries and exits to optimize profitability. The “big ass fly” strategy was reviewed, with adjustments suggested to make it more effective in the present low volatility conditions.

The team also discussed more conservative risk management techniques, including the use of smaller position sizes and tighter stop-losses to mitigate risk. The session included an analysis of external factors affecting market stability, highlighting the influence of economic and geopolitical developments.

Ernie concluded by encouraging traders to maintain a disciplined and patient approach, reminding them to avoid overtrading in a low volatility market and to stick closely to their defined strategies.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Monday September 9

Posted on by Conor Browne

Adapting Trade Strategies to Market Conditions and Managing Trade Execution

• Understanding Market Structure with Volume Profile: Emphasized the importance of recognizing key structural elements in volume profile, including volume nodes and gaps, to improve trade entries and exits.

• Managing Trade Execution and Adjustments: Discussed strategies for managing trades effectively, including the impact of entering profit zones too early and the importance of adhering to set profit targets.

• Analyzing Market Reactions to Futures Rollovers: Explained the concept of rollover gaps in futures contracts and how the market often respects these gaps, which can influence trading decisions.

• Technical Adjustments and Risk Management: Highlighted the necessity of adjusting trade parameters, such as the width of trades, based on current market volatility to manage risk and maximize profitability.

• Navigating Low Volatility and High Gamma: Addressed the challenges of trading in low volatility conditions, emphasizing the increased sensitivity to price movements and the need for precise timing.

• Continuous Learning and Strategy Refinement: Encouraged traders to review their trades continuously, learn from past experiences, and adjust their strategies based on evolving market conditions and personal observations.

Summary

Ernie focused on the importance of understanding market structure through the use of volume profile. He highlighted the role of volume nodes and gaps in guiding trade entries and exits, emphasizing that recognizing these elements can significantly enhance trading outcomes. Ernie shared insights on managing trade execution, particularly the challenges associated with entering profit zones too early and the importance of adhering to profit targets to avoid potential reversals.

The discussion also covered the concept of rollover gaps in futures contracts, explaining how these gaps occur when the market transitions from one contract to another and often act as significant levels that the market respects. Ernie emphasized the need for traders to be aware of these gaps and incorporate them into their market analysis.

Ernie highlighted the challenges of trading in low volatility environments, where trades are more sensitive to price movements due to high gamma. He advised adjusting trade parameters, such as the width of trades, to better manage risk and align with current market conditions.

The meeting also reinforced the value of continuous learning and strategy refinement. Ernie encouraged participants to regularly review their trades, learn from their experiences, and adjust their strategies based on personal observations and market dynamics. This approach helps traders remain adaptable and better equipped to navigate changing market conditions.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Monday May 6

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Market Trends and Managing Risk

• Understanding Market Gaps and Nodes: Discussion on navigating through market gaps and the significance of volume nodes in predicting potential movements.

• Timing of Trade Entries: Deliberations on the best timing for trade entries and the implications of holding trades over the weekend.

• Economic and Media Influences: Observations on how economic reports and media narratives potentially influence market conditions and trader sentiment.

• Risk Management Tactics: Strategies for managing trades, understanding gamma risk, and the importance of price action.

• Future Predictions and Fed Policies: Speculations on Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the impact on trading strategies.

• Premium Decay and Trading Decisions: Insights into the behavior of premium decay over non-trading days and strategies for optimizing trade exits.

Summary

This discussion primarily revolved around understanding the dynamics of market nodes, the timing of entering trades, and the importance of economic reports and media influence on market perceptions. Ernie provided a deep dive into managing trades that span over the weekend, highlighting the ongoing decay of options premiums and the strategic implications for traders. The conversation also touched upon the impact of Federal Reserve policies and media narratives on trading conditions. Risk management was a focal point, with a detailed discussion on gamma risk and the optimal timing for trade adjustments to mitigate risk and maximize potential gains. The meeting encapsulated a blend of technical analysis, economic insights, and practical trading strategies aimed at equipping traders with the tools to navigate complex market conditions effectively.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Thursday May 2

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Adjustments and Performance Review in a Volatile Market

• Trading Updates and Results: Ernie discusses recent trades, including outcomes and the current status of SPX and NDX trades set to expire. He mentions putting on new trades for the next day and reflects on the fluctuating pricing of these trades.

• Monthly Performance Review: The meeting includes a review of the past month’s trading performance. Ernie shares his financial gains from the new trading strategy, aiming for a 60% annual return based on the current performance metrics.

• Technical Difficulties and Screen Sharing: There’s a brief interaction about technical issues with screen sharing during the meeting, highlighting the importance of clear communication in virtual settings.

• Strategic Financial Insights: Discussion about the importance of risk management, with Ernie explaining his approach to keeping drawdowns low and focusing on high returns relative to risks taken.

• Interactive Broker Account Setup: Ernie talks about setting up a new trading account with Interactive Brokers, intending to provide better support for members using this platform, especially those in Canada.

• Training and Learning: The meeting emphasizes continuous learning and adaptation, with Ernie encouraging members to log and review their trades as a way to improve their trading strategies continuously.

Summary

During this daily trading meeting, Ernie shared updates on his current trades and discussed the financial performance of his new trading strategy, which aims for significant annual returns. He tackled some technical issues related to screen sharing, ensuring all participants could follow along with his presentation. The discussion also covered strategic financial management, focusing on minimizing risks while maximizing returns, and the importance of logging and reviewing trades to refine strategies. Additionally, Ernie introduced plans to set up a new account with Interactive Brokers to support Canadian members better. The session underscored the importance of adaptability and continuous learning in trading.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday January 30

Posted on by Conor Browne

Daily Trading Strategy Discussion and Analysis

• The meeting begins with an analysis of the current market trends, emphasizing the unpredictability and sideways movement of the market. The discussion highlights the importance of not overanalyzing market fluctuations or news events, focusing instead on broader trends.
Use of the Hull Moving Average:

• The Hull Moving Average is discussed as a tool for identifying market trends over a two-week period. The conversation includes insights into why a 14-day period is used for the Hull indicator and its application on daily charts for trend detection.
Batman Strategy and Probabilities:

• The Batman strategy is examined, with emphasis on its performance compared to single out-of-the-money butterflies. The conversation includes the psychological benefits and management efforts associated with the Batman strategy, as well as its impact on trade frequencies and outcomes.
Risk Management and Position Sizing:

• Risk management techniques, including position sizing based on account size and trade frequency, are explored. The meeting covers the importance of keeping average position sizes within certain ranges based on market volatility.
Analysis of NASDAQ and S&P 500 Volatility:

• The volatility and price movements of the NASDAQ and S&P 500 are compared using the Average True Range (ATR) indicator. The discussion includes insights into how different volatility regimes affect the choice of butterfly width and trade management.
Trade Execution Challenges and Commission Costs:

• Challenges in executing trades on the NASDAQ due to bid-ask spreads and volume differences are addressed. The meeting also discusses commission costs for futures and index options, emphasizing the relative impact based on trade size.

Summary

The January 30th Daily Meeting focused on various aspects of trading strategy and market analysis. The discussion started with a caution against overanalyzing daily market fluctuations and news events, advocating for a broader view of market trends using tools like the Hull Moving Average. The group examined the Batman strategy in detail, discussing its management, psychological impacts, and comparison with single butterfly trades. Risk management, particularly in terms of position sizing relative to account size and market conditions, was a key topic. The meeting also delved into the analysis of NASDAQ and S&P 500 volatility, offering insights into how volatility affects trading decisions. Finally, practical aspects of trade execution, including the challenges of getting filled on the NASDAQ and the implications of commission costs, were covered. The meeting provided a comprehensive view of trading strategies, risk management, and market analysis, valuable for both experienced traders and newcomers.