Tag Archives: Testing Strategies

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for December 15

Posted on by Conor Browne

Evaluating Volatility Trends and Strategic Adjustments

• Reflection on the week’s heightened volatility and its impact on trade execution across multiple sectors.

• Analysis of the “big ass fly” strategy performance, identifying successful adjustments and areas for refinement.

• Discussion on improving execution timing to better align with intraday volatility spikes.

• Review of risk management practices, focusing on adapting stop-losses to accommodate larger price swings.

• Exploration of market sentiment shifts influenced by geopolitical developments and their sector-specific effects.

• Setting actionable goals for the upcoming week, including refining technical indicator usage for more precise entries.

Summary

the team reviewed the past week’s trading activities, which were marked by heightened market volatility. Ernie led an evaluation of the “big ass fly” strategy, highlighting adjustments that yielded positive outcomes while identifying areas that could be refined further.

The group discussed challenges in timing trade execution, particularly during intraday volatility spikes, and proposed methods for improvement. Risk management practices were analyzed, with a focus on adapting stop-loss settings to better accommodate larger price movements without compromising capital preservation.

The session also explored how geopolitical developments affected market sentiment and specific sectors, providing insights for strategy adjustments. Looking ahead, the team set goals to refine the use of technical indicators for more accurate trade entries and to continue aligning their strategies with the evolving market landscape. Ernie emphasized the importance of learning from the week’s outcomes and maintaining discipline in execution.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Monday December 2

Posted on by Conor Browne

Optimizing Strategies and Risk Management Post-Holiday Markets

• Discussion on transitioning strategies to align with post-holiday market trends and potential volatility.

• Refinement of the “big ass fly” strategy to better suit increased liquidity and activity levels.

• Emphasis on leveraging technical indicators to pinpoint high-probability trade opportunities.

• Review of conservative risk management practices to balance capital preservation and profit potential.

• Exploration of sector-specific opportunities arising from post-holiday trading patterns.

• Encouragement to maintain focus on long-term strategy goals, avoiding overreaction to initial market shifts.

Summary

the team discussed strategic adjustments required for transitioning from holiday market conditions to potentially increased liquidity and activity. Ernie led a review of the “big ass fly” strategy, suggesting refinements to optimize its application in the evolving trading environment.

The session emphasized the importance of technical indicators in identifying high-probability trade opportunities as markets shift. Risk management practices were revisited, with a focus on balancing capital preservation while taking advantage of post-holiday trading patterns.

Sector-specific opportunities that typically arise during this period were explored, providing insights into potential areas of focus. Ernie concluded by encouraging the team to maintain their long-term strategic objectives, cautioning against overreacting to initial market fluctuations as activity normalizes.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday November 26

Posted on by Conor Browne

Refining Risk and Strategy in Anticipation of Market Changes

• Discussion on managing expectations as market volumes decrease ahead of the holiday season.

• Review of the “big ass fly” strategy, focusing on adjustments to capture value in thinning markets.

• Emphasis on using technical indicators to identify potential opportunities amid limited activity.

• Practical advice on scaling back position sizes to reduce risk exposure in a low-liquidity environment.

• Exploration of historical holiday market patterns to guide strategy adjustments.

• Encouragement to focus on quality setups and avoid forced trades during slow periods.

Summary

the team concentrated on adapting strategies to anticipate changes in market activity as volumes decrease during the holiday season. Ernie emphasized the importance of refining the “big ass fly” strategy to optimize performance in thinning markets while maintaining capital preservation.

The session highlighted the role of technical indicators in spotting potential opportunities despite limited activity. Practical advice was provided on scaling back position sizes to reduce risk exposure in a low-liquidity environment.

The team also explored historical holiday market patterns to better understand how to adjust strategies for the upcoming period. Ernie concluded by encouraging everyone to focus on high-quality setups, reminding them to avoid forcing trades during slow trading days.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Thursday November 21

Posted on by Conor Browne

Optimizing Strategies and Maintaining Discipline in Low-Volatility Conditions

• Discussion on adapting trading strategies to align with current low-volatility market trends.

• Refinement of the “big ass fly” strategy, focusing on subtle adjustments for improved efficiency.

• Emphasis on disciplined trade execution, with precise entry and exit points supported by technical analysis.

• Review of risk management strategies, highlighting the importance of capital preservation through smaller positions and tight stop-losses.

• Exploration of potential market catalysts that could influence volatility and trading opportunities.

• Encouragement to remain patient and focused on quality setups, avoiding overtrading in quiet markets.

Summary

the team concentrated on refining trading strategies to optimize performance in the ongoing low-volatility market. Ernie led a discussion on subtle adjustments to the “big ass fly” strategy to ensure efficiency and effectiveness in a stable trading environment.

The meeting emphasized disciplined execution, urging the team to prioritize precision in timing entries and exits, with support from technical analysis. Risk management strategies were reviewed, focusing on capital preservation through smaller position sizes and tighter stop-loss levels.

The team also explored potential market catalysts that could impact volatility and create new trading opportunities. Ernie concluded by encouraging patience and discipline, emphasizing the importance of focusing on quality trade setups and avoiding the temptation to overtrade in quiet market conditions.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for October 20

Posted on by Conor Browne

Adapting Strategies for Low-Volatility and Long-Term Focus

• Reflection on the week’s low-volatility market conditions and their impact on trading strategies.

• Emphasis on the importance of patience and avoiding overtrading in stagnant market environments.

• Review of the “big ass fly” strategy’s performance, with recommendations for adjustments to better suit low-volatility periods.

• Discussion on risk management techniques, focusing on preserving capital while seeking small but consistent profits.

• Exploration of technical indicators and market signals that can help in identifying potential breakout points in quiet markets.

• Setting goals for the upcoming week, including maintaining discipline, refining trade setups, and staying focused on long-term objectives.

Summary

the team reviewed the trading activities of the past week, marked by persistently low volatility. The discussion highlighted the challenges posed by such conditions, with Ernie emphasizing the need for patience and the importance of avoiding the temptation to overtrade in a stagnant market.

The “big ass fly” strategy was analyzed, with recommendations for adjustments to make it more effective in the current market environment. The session also covered risk management techniques designed to protect capital while aiming for small, consistent profits, a critical approach when market movements are minimal.

The team explored the use of technical indicators and market signals that could help in identifying breakout points, offering opportunities in otherwise quiet markets. Ernie concluded the meeting by setting goals for the upcoming week, encouraging traders to remain disciplined, refine their trade setups, and focus on long-term objectives rather than short-term gains in a challenging trading environment.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Friday October 11

Posted on by Conor Browne

Adapting Strategies for Market Stability and Optimizing Trade Setups

• Discussion on the current phase of market stability, and how it is impacting volatility-based trading strategies.

• Emphasis on adjusting position sizing and trade frequency to match the lower volatility environment.

• Review of key trade setups, with a focus on identifying opportunities despite reduced market movement.

• Refinement of the “big ass fly” strategy, exploring tweaks to optimize returns in calmer market conditions.

• Introduction of alternative strategies that perform better in stable markets, shifting from volatility-focused to consistency-focused approaches.

• Encouragement to remain disciplined and stick to the trading plan, even when market conditions become less volatile.

Summary

the focus was on adapting trading strategies to suit the current phase of market stability, where volatility has decreased. Ernie led a discussion on how traders can adjust position sizing and reduce trade frequency to align with this lower volatility environment, ensuring risk remains well-managed.

The team reviewed key trade setups, identifying how to find opportunities even when market movements are less pronounced. The “big ass fly” strategy was revisited, with Ernie suggesting refinements to ensure it continues to yield positive results even in calmer market conditions.

Additionally, the session introduced alternative strategies that are more suited for stable markets, emphasizing consistency over volatility-driven gains. The meeting concluded with a reminder to maintain discipline, stick to the trading plan, and avoid the temptation to overtrade in periods of reduced market activity.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for September 29

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategy Refinements and Key Takeaways

• Review of the previous week’s trading outcomes, including both successful trades and areas requiring improvement.

• Analysis of market behavior, focusing on how sudden shifts influenced trade execution and decision-making.

• Discussion on the effectiveness of the “big ass fly” and other advanced strategies in capturing value during volatile market conditions.

• Emphasis on learning from past mistakes, particularly in terms of risk management and scaling positions according to market conditions.

• Introduction of new goals for the upcoming week, including refining position sizing, managing emotions during stressful trades, and improving the timing of entries and exits.

• Encouragement to maintain a consistent process while staying flexible in the face of changing market environments.

Summary

the team reflected on the past week’s trading activities, analyzing both the successful trades and the areas where adjustments are needed. A major focus was on understanding how the week’s market behavior, particularly the sharp shifts, affected trade execution and decision-making processes. The effectiveness of the “big ass fly” strategy was evaluated, with a focus on how it performed under volatile conditions and how it could be further refined.

Ernie emphasized the importance of learning from mistakes, particularly in the areas of risk management and position sizing. The team was encouraged to remain disciplined and adapt strategies based on the lessons learned from the previous week’s market dynamics.

Looking ahead, the group set new goals for the upcoming week, with a focus on refining position sizing, improving emotional control during high-stress trades, and enhancing the timing of trade entries and exits. The meeting closed with a reminder to stick to a consistent process, even while adapting to the evolving market landscape.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Thursday September 19

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategies for Trading at All-Time Highs and Managing Profit in a Stagnant Market

• Discussion on trading challenges at all-time highs, with a focus on how to handle stagnation and potential pullbacks.

• Introduction to the “big ass fly” strategy for taking advantage of accelerated premium decay, especially in low VIX environments.

• Exploration of the “gap and trap” concept, with a critical view on the validity of pattern names in trading.

• Practical advice on staging exit trades and managing profit-taking efficiently in rapidly changing market conditions.

• Encouragement to utilize the analyze tab in Thinkorswim to better understand trade positions, with a focus on reducing anxiety through thorough analysis.

• Casual conversation about personal hobbies and investments, reflecting on the importance of balancing work and personal life, including a discussion on the benefits of having a hobby like pool or car collecting.

Summary

the group focused on the complexities of trading at all-time market highs, particularly when the market shows little movement, making it difficult to gauge the direction. Ernie introduced the “big ass fly” strategy as a powerful tool for capitalizing on premium decay, particularly when the VIX is low. This strategy was highlighted as particularly effective on days when economic reports influence market behavior, creating an environment ripe for premium decay.

Ernie critiqued the use of pattern names like “gap and trap,” explaining that while they are often used to justify trading decisions, they lack the empirical backing necessary to be reliable. The discussion then moved to practical trading advice, including the importance of staging exit trades in Thinkorswim and using the analyze tab to manage trades effectively. Ernie encouraged participants to reduce their anxiety by thoroughly analyzing their positions and making informed decisions based on that analysis.

The meeting concluded with a more casual conversation, where participants shared their personal hobbies and investments, emphasizing the importance of having a balanced life outside of trading. Ernie also shared his plans for a new business venture, highlighting the value of pursuing passions alongside professional responsibilities.

Archive, Zoom Daily

Daily Meeting for Tuesday September 17

Posted on by Conor Browne

Mastering Futures Contracts and Managing Rollover Risks

• Detailed explanation of futures contracts, focusing on the differences between the root symbol and specific contract symbols.

• Discussion on the complexities of rollover events in futures trading and how they affect pricing and trading strategy.

• Explanation of contango and backwardation in futures markets, including their impact on trading decisions.

• Emphasis on the importance of understanding expiration dates and the risks associated with trading futures near expiration.

• Guidance on optimizing futures trading strategies using platforms like Thinkorswim and TradingView, with tips on managing multiple contracts.

•Advice on risk management and the importance of consistent learning to avoid common pitfalls in futures trading.

Summary

The focus was on understanding the intricacies of trading futures contracts, with a special emphasis on managing rollover risks and the effects of expiration dates on pricing. The discussion began with an in-depth explanation of the difference between the root symbol for futures contracts and the specific symbols that include expiration tags. Ernie highlighted the critical importance of recognizing these distinctions to avoid costly mistakes in trading.

The session covered the concepts of contango and backwardation, explaining how these market conditions influence futures pricing and trader decision-making. Ernie provided practical advice on handling rollover events, which can cause significant price fluctuations, and offered tips for using trading platforms like Thinkorswim and TradingView to manage these transitions smoothly.

Participants were reminded of the importance of understanding the expiration process, especially for zero DTE trades, and the risks of not being fully informed about the specifics of the contracts they are trading. The session concluded with a strong emphasis on risk management and the continuous learning required to succeed in futures trading, urging traders to focus on avoiding losses rather than solely aiming for profits.

Archive, Retrospective

Sunday Retrospective for August 25

Posted on by Conor Browne

Navigating Economic Uncertainty and Strategic Risk Management

• Economic Data Impact on Market Sentiment: Discussed the unusual market behavior in response to recent economic data, particularly focusing on the unexpected changes in employment reports and their implications.

• Fed’s Potential Rate Cut: Analyzed the Federal Reserve’s possible rate cut, speculating on a 50 basis point reduction and its potential effects on market volatility.

• Volume Profile and Structural Analysis: Highlighted the importance of using volume profile to identify structural market levels, which are critical for strategic trade entries.

• Risk Management in Uncertain Times: Emphasized the necessity of maintaining disciplined risk management strategies, especially when market conditions are driven by unexpected economic news.

• Psychological Resilience in Trading: Stressed the importance of mental toughness and maintaining a clear trading plan amid market fluctuations and conflicting economic signals.

• Continuous Adaptation and Learning: Encouraged participants to continuously adapt their strategies in response to evolving market conditions and to stay informed about global economic trends.

Summary

Ernie and the participants discussed the unusual market behavior in response to recent economic data, particularly the unexpected revisions in employment reports. The conversation focused on the implications of these revisions and how they contradict the previously optimistic narrative provided by the Federal Reserve.

Ernie speculated on the possibility of the Fed implementing a 50 basis point rate cut and the potential short-term market rally followed by a more significant downturn. He emphasized the importance of using volume profile to identify key structural levels in the market, which are crucial for making strategic trade entries, especially in times of economic uncertainty.

Risk management was a central theme, with Ernie stressing the importance of maintaining disciplined strategies despite the unpredictable market conditions. He advised traders to be psychologically resilient and to adhere to their trading plans, even when faced with conflicting economic signals.

The session concluded with a reminder for traders to continuously adapt their strategies and stay informed about global economic trends, ensuring they are prepared for the potential volatility ahead. The meeting reinforced the value of strategic planning, disciplined risk management, and ongoing education in navigating the complexities of the market.