Tag Archives: volume Profile

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Daily Meeting for Monday March 31

Posted on by Conor Browne

Executing Without Delay and Recommitting to Tiered Trade Prioritization

• Missed breakout in large-cap tech despite it being labeled an A-tier setup during pre-market planning.

• Over-analysis of volume confirmation caused hesitation, even when price action already validated the move.

• Refinement to ‘big ass fly’ strategy, focusing on taking partial size entries immediately on key level breaks.

• Emphasis on trusting morning prep, with several missed trades aligning perfectly with pre-drawn levels.

• New accountability system introduced, requiring each trader to note their first hesitation moment of the day for post-session review.

• Reinforced hierarchy of setups, committing to instant execution on A-tier trades regardless of recent trade outcomes.

Summary

the team examined another missed A-tier opportunity in large-cap tech—despite it aligning cleanly with the pre-market plan. Ernie pointed out that volume analysis was over-applied, causing hesitation even after the price had confirmed the level break.

To address this, the team made further refinements to the ‘big ass fly’ strategy—especially using partial size to enter quickly on key breaks and remove execution paralysis. The importance of trusting pre-market work was reinforced, as multiple setups played out exactly as planned but weren’t acted on.

A new accountability system was introduced: each trader will now log their first hesitation moment of the day for end-of-session review, helping to build self-awareness and reduce repeat patterns. Finally, Ernie stressed that trade priority must be respected—if it’s an A-tier setup, it gets executed immediately, regardless of what happened earlier in the session.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday November 25

Posted on by Conor Browne

Adapting Strategies for Stability and Maintaining Discipline

• Focus on refining strategies to align with ongoing low-volatility market conditions.

• Adjustments to the “big ass fly” strategy for improved efficiency in stable market environments.

• Emphasis on disciplined trade execution, ensuring accurate timing of entries and exits.

• Review of risk management practices, including tighter stop-losses and reduced position sizes.

• Discussion on external factors that could potentially increase market volatility in the short term.

• Reminder to maintain patience and prioritize long-term objectives over short-term gains.

Summary

the team focused on refining strategies to navigate the continued low-volatility market conditions effectively. Ernie led a discussion on adjustments to the “big ass fly” strategy, aiming to enhance its efficiency and adaptability to stable environments.

The session emphasized disciplined trade execution, highlighting the importance of precise timing for entries and exits. Risk management practices were reviewed, with an emphasis on tighter stop-losses and conservative position sizes to safeguard capital.

The team also discussed potential external factors that might disrupt the current stability and create trading opportunities. Ernie concluded by encouraging the team to remain patient, prioritize long-term objectives, and avoid the temptation to chase short-term gains in a calm market environment.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday September 11

Posted on by Conor Browne

Strategic Trade Timing and Effective Use of Market Structures

• Objective Trade Entry Using Volume Profile: Emphasized the importance of waiting for trades to pull back to structural elements identified through volume profile before executing, to avoid catching a falling knife.

• Managing Futures and SPX Correlation: Discussed the correlation between E-mini S&P futures and the SPX, explaining how futures prices gradually converge with SPX prices as the contract approaches expiration.

• Optimal Trade Entry Points: Highlighted the significance of timing trades around key support and resistance levels, particularly when the market is in an impulsive move, to maximize the probability of success.

• Trade Strategy Based on Pullback Percentages: Provided insights into typical pullback percentages (30% to 70%) after an impulsive move, using these levels as potential points for initiating trades.

• Understanding Rollover and Futures Pricing: Explained the mechanics of futures rollover and how pricing changes from contract initiation to expiration, impacting trading decisions.

• Adjusting Risk and Reward Ratios: Advised on adjusting trade sizes and risk-to-reward ratios based on market volatility and structural analysis to maintain a balanced approach to trading.

Summary

Ernie focused on the strategic use of volume profile to identify key structural elements in the market, emphasizing that trades should be entered when the market pulls back to these levels to maximize the probability of success. He cautioned against entering trades prematurely, comparing it to trying to catch a falling knife.

Ernie also discussed the correlation between E-mini S&P futures and the SPX, explaining that while these two move in tandem tick for tick, futures prices gradually converge with SPX prices as the contract approaches expiration. He highlighted the importance of monitoring these movements to ensure accurate trade execution.

The session included detailed guidance on timing trades around support and resistance levels, especially after impulsive moves in the market. Ernie provided a framework for understanding typical pullback percentages, which range from 30% to 70%, suggesting these levels as strategic entry points.

Ernie further explained the mechanics of futures rollover, detailing how pricing evolves from the start of a new contract to its expiration. This understanding helps traders make more informed decisions about their positions, particularly in relation to the timing and structure of their trades.

Finally, the meeting emphasized the importance of adjusting trade sizes and risk-to-reward ratios based on current market volatility and structural elements. Ernie encouraged traders to maintain a disciplined approach, using these strategies to balance risk and reward effectively, ultimately aiming for consistent profitability in their trading endeavors.

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Daily Meeting for Tuesday September 10

Posted on by Conor Browne

Managing Trade Execution and Strategic Use of Volume Profile

• Objective Entry Points: Ernie discussed the concept of objective entries using volume profile, where structural levels are marked by transitions from high to low volume, acting as support and resistance zones.

• Timing of Trades: Highlighted the importance of timing when entering trades, particularly during pullbacks to structural levels, to maximize the probability of successful outcomes.

• Volume Profile Techniques: Emphasized the use of vertical lines on charts to mark specific time frames for potential trades, aiding traders in visualizing entry points based on volume profile analysis.

• Market Behavior and Probabilities: Explained the probabilistic nature of market movements, reminding traders to accept the reality that approximately 50% of trades may go against expectations.

• Trade Discipline and Mental Toughness: Stressed the importance of maintaining discipline and mental toughness, especially when trades do not immediately go in the desired direction.

• Consistent Strategy Application: Encouraged traders to consistently apply their chosen market direction strategies, whether using a 14-day, 21-day, or 28-day moving average, to capture market trends effectively.

Summary

Ernie focused on the concept of objective entries in trading, using volume profile to identify key structural levels where the market transitions from high to low volume. He explained that these levels serve as critical support and resistance zones, providing traders with clear points for entering trades.

Ernie discussed the importance of timing when executing trades, advising traders to wait for pullbacks to these structural levels to maximize the likelihood of a favorable outcome. He demonstrated how to use vertical lines on charts to mark the specific time frames for potential trades, making it easier to visualize entry points based on volume profile analysis.

The meeting also touched on the probabilistic nature of market movements, with Ernie reminding participants that about 50% of trades may not go as planned. He emphasized the need for traders to accept this reality and focus on the consistent application of their strategies to capture market trends effectively.

Ernie stressed the importance of trade discipline and mental toughness, advising traders to remain patient and avoid emotional decision-making when trades do not immediately perform as expected. He highlighted that maintaining a disciplined approach and sticking to predefined profit targets is essential for long-term success.

Finally, Ernie encouraged traders to consistently apply their chosen strategies for determining market direction, whether using a 14-day, 21-day, or 28-day moving average. He noted that consistency in strategy application helps capture market trends and supports effective trading decisions. The meeting reinforced the value of structured analysis, disciplined execution, and a resilient mindset in navigating market complexities.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday September 4

Posted on by Conor Browne

Managing Margin Calls and Strategic Trade Techniques

• Margin Call Management: Ernie shared his recent experience of receiving a margin call due to flagged day trades and explained how he resolved the issue by contacting the broker.

• Box Trade Strategy: Introduced the box trade as a technique to avoid pattern day trading violations, explaining how to lock in profits without closing trades and avoiding strikes against day trading rules.

• Trading Futures for Flexibility: Highlighted the use of MES (Micro E-mini S&P) futures for trading without pattern day trading restrictions, allowing for multiple entries and exits within the same day.

• Market Reaction to Economic Data: Analyzed the market’s reaction to the latest jobs report, noting the unusual rebound despite the soft data and discussing potential underlying factors.

• Entry Points and Volume Profile: Discussed the importance of choosing precise entry points based on volume profile analysis, with a focus on structural levels and node boundaries.

• Seasonality and Market Expectations: Emphasized the historical context of September being a challenging month for the market, advising traders to adjust their strategies accordingly while staying focused on real-time market data.

Summary

Ernie discussed a recent margin call he received due to flagged day trading activity. He explained how he resolved the issue by contacting his broker and shared a strategy to avoid such situations in the future through the use of box trades. This approach allows traders to lock in profits without closing trades, thus avoiding pattern day trading violations.

Ernie highlighted the advantages of trading futures, specifically MES (Micro E-mini S&P) contracts, which do not have pattern day trading restrictions. This flexibility allows traders to enter and exit trades multiple times within the same day without the risk of receiving a pattern day trader strike.

The meeting also covered an analysis of the market’s reaction to the latest jobs report. Despite the report showing weaker-than-expected data, the market rebounded strongly, which Ernie found surprising given the context of ongoing economic uncertainties. He stressed the importance of understanding market behavior and using tools like volume profile to identify key structural levels for precise trade entries.

Ernie discussed the seasonal trends of the market, particularly how September has historically been a challenging month with lower average returns. He advised traders to be mindful of this context while making decisions, but also to prioritize real-time market data over seasonal expectations.

Overall, the session focused on strategic techniques for managing margin calls, the benefits of trading futures, and the importance of precise trade execution using volume profile, with a reminder to stay adaptable and grounded in current market conditions.

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Daily Meeting for Wednesday August 28

Posted on by Conor Browne

Managing Market Volatility and Enhancing Trade Strategies

• Impact of Volatility on Options Decay: Discussed how a sudden drop in the market between 10:30 and 11:00 AM increased volatility and temporarily halted the decay of option premiums, highlighting the relationship between volatility and options pricing.

• Volume Profile and Structural Analysis: Emphasized using volume profile to identify key market levels, focusing on structural lines and child nodes to guide trade decisions.

• Trade Execution and Entry Points: Analyzed the timing of trade entries, particularly around significant market movements, and discussed how to set appropriate price limits based on current market behavior.

• Risk Management in Trading Strategies: Stressed the importance of maintaining discipline in managing risks, including setting acceptable trade costs and avoiding emotional decisions driven by market movements.

• Using Technical Tools for Decision Making: Provided practical guidance on using technical tools, such as volume-weighted average price (VWAP) and volatility analysis, to refine trade execution strategies.

• Dealing with Market Uncertainty: Discussed the challenge of predicting market behavior, particularly around major events like earnings announcements and economic reports, and emphasized the importance of a flexible trading approach.

Summary

Ernie and participants analyzed the impact of a sudden market drop between 10:30 and 11:00 AM, which caused a spike in volatility and temporarily halted the decay of options premiums. This highlighted the close relationship between volatility and the rate of options decay. Ernie explained that despite fluctuations, the decay of options premiums will eventually reach zero by market close, emphasizing the importance of understanding these dynamics when planning trades.

The discussion covered the use of volume profile to identify key market levels, including structural lines and child nodes, which help traders make more informed decisions on entry points. Ernie provided insights on setting appropriate price limits and managing trade costs, advising traders to avoid emotional decisions and focus on disciplined risk management.

Participants were also guided on using various technical tools, such as VWAP and volatility analysis, to refine their trade strategies. Ernie emphasized the challenges of predicting market behavior, particularly around significant events like earnings announcements and economic reports. He encouraged a flexible trading approach, acknowledging that while patterns can sometimes emerge, they do not guarantee future outcomes.

Overall, the meeting reinforced the importance of strategic analysis, disciplined risk management, and effective use of technical tools to navigate market volatility and achieve consistent trading success.

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Daily Meeting for Tuesday August 27

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Trade Execution and Market Strategy with Volume Profile

• Refinement of Volume Profile Techniques: Ernie introduced updates to the volume profile technique, emphasizing clearer marking of node boundaries to aid in identifying structural levels for trades.

• Strategies for Low Volatility Markets: Discussed the challenges of using certain strategies, like the Batman strategy, in low volatility environments, and suggested alternatives for better management.

• Gamma Risk in Trade Management: Highlighted the high gamma risk associated with certain trades, especially in instruments like NASDAQ, and provided guidance on managing such risks effectively.

• Adjusting Position Sizes: Emphasized the importance of adjusting starting position sizes and increasing them to achieve better profitability, based on recent analysis of past trading performance.

• Use of Technical Tools: Provided insights on using specific tools, like the Profit Taker, and discussed their role in improving decision-making during trade execution.

• Awareness of Phishing Attempts: Shared information on identifying and avoiding phishing attempts, particularly in platforms like Discord, to protect personal data and accounts.

Summary

Ernie discussed refinements to the volume profile technique, making changes to node boundary markings to help traders better identify structural levels for entry and exit points. He stressed the importance of understanding how these levels function within the context of the market’s current trend.

The discussion covered the challenges of using certain strategies, like the Batman strategy, in low volatility environments, and Ernie suggested alternatives for better management in such conditions. He also highlighted the high gamma risk associated with certain trades, such as those involving NASDAQ, and provided guidance on how to manage this risk effectively.

Ernie advised traders to adjust their position sizes, recommending a gradual increase to improve overall profitability. This suggestion was based on a recent analysis of his past performance, which indicated that a more aggressive approach could yield better results.

The meeting included practical advice on using technical tools like the Profit Taker to improve trade execution and decision-making. Additionally, Ernie shared important information on recognizing and avoiding phishing attempts, particularly on platforms like Discord, to protect personal data and accounts.

Overall, the session focused on enhancing trade execution techniques, refining strategies based on market conditions, and maintaining vigilance in online security.

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Daily Meeting for Friday August 23

Posted on by Conor Browne

Enhancing Trade Precision and Managing Volatility with Volume Profile

• Volume Profile Utilization: Ernie emphasized using volume profile to identify key structural levels and determine precise entry points for trades during periods of market volatility.

• Staging Trades: Discussed the concept of staging trades in anticipation of price movements to a specific structural level, including practical examples of setting up and executing these trades.

• Handling Market Volatility: Addressed strategies for managing trades during volatile market conditions, highlighting the importance of patience and precise timing.

• Trade Execution and Position Management: Shared insights on executing trades with accuracy, focusing on setting appropriate risk-to-reward ratios and managing trades as they evolve throughout the day.

• Technical Tools and Practical Application: Provided a demonstration of how to use technical tools like Thinkorswim for trade execution, including setting limit orders and understanding profit curves.

• Continuous Learning and Adjustment: Encouraged traders to continuously refine their strategies by analyzing trade outcomes, adjusting techniques, and learning from real-time market conditions.

Summary

Ernie focused on the strategic use of volume profile to identify key structural levels in the market, which are crucial for determining precise entry points during periods of high volatility. He discussed the concept of staging trades, where traders set up trades in anticipation of price movements to specific levels, and provided practical examples of how to implement this strategy effectively.

Ernie also addressed the challenges of managing trades during volatile market conditions, emphasizing the importance of patience and precise timing. He shared insights on trade execution, particularly on setting risk-to-reward ratios and managing trades as they develop throughout the day.

The session included a demonstration of how to use technical tools like Thinkorswim for executing trades, including setting limit orders and interpreting profit curves. Ernie also highlighted the importance of continuous learning and adjustment, encouraging traders to refine their strategies by analyzing trade outcomes and adapting to real-time market conditions.

Overall, the meeting reinforced the value of strategic planning, disciplined trade execution, and continuous improvement in navigating the complexities of the market.

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Daily Meeting for Thursday August 22

Posted on by Conor Browne

Leveraging Technical Tools and Managing Volatility in Trade Execution

• Volume Profile Utilization: Emphasized the use of volume profile to identify structural zones in the market, which are crucial for determining entry points and managing trades effectively.

• Market Reactions and Economic Reports: Discussed the impact of economic reports like the PMI on market movements and the importance of understanding their influence on market volatility.

• Trade Timing and Execution: Highlighted the significance of precise timing in entering and exiting trades, particularly during periods of market pullback and increased volatility.

• Risk Management Techniques: Stressed the importance of adjusting position sizes and managing risk, especially in response to unusual market behavior and economic report outcomes.

• Technical Analysis and Adjustments: Provided practical guidance on adjusting technical indicators and charts to enhance clarity and improve decision-making during trade execution.

• Continuous Learning and Strategy Refinement: Encouraged traders to continuously refine their strategies and stay informed about global economic factors that influence market dynamics.

Summary

Ernie focused on the importance of using volume profile as a key tool to identify structural zones in the market. He explained how these zones can guide traders in making informed decisions about entry and exit points, especially in volatile market conditions.

The session covered the impact of economic reports, such as the PMI, on market movements. Ernie discussed how these reports can trigger significant market reactions, and emphasized the need for traders to be aware of these influences when planning their trades. He highlighted the importance of precise timing in trade execution, particularly during market pullbacks.

Risk management was a critical topic, with Ernie advising traders to adjust their position sizes in response to unusual market behavior and the outcomes of economic reports. He also provided practical guidance on how to adjust technical indicators and chart settings to improve clarity and support better decision-making.

Finally, Ernie encouraged continuous learning and the refinement of trading strategies. He stressed the importance of staying informed about global economic factors that can influence market dynamics, and of incorporating these insights into a disciplined trading approach. The meeting reinforced the value of technical precision, strategic risk management, and ongoing education in achieving consistent trading success.

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Daily Meeting for Tuesday August 20

Posted on by Conor Browne

Refining Trade Execution and Mental Toughness in Volatile Markets

• Volume Profile as a Tool for Market Analysis: Ernie emphasized the importance of understanding and using volume profile to navigate market structures and identify key support and resistance levels.

• Handling Market Volatility: Discussed strategies for dealing with unexpected market moves and how to manage positions effectively in high-volatility environments.

• Importance of Pre-Planning Trades: Stressed the need for creating and sticking to pre-planned trading scenarios to avoid emotional decision-making during market fluctuations.

• Managing Trade Entries and Position Sizing: Ernie shared insights on entering trades at strategic points and adjusting position sizes based on market conditions and personal risk tolerance.

• Mental Toughness and Discipline: Highlighted the importance of mental toughness in trading, particularly in sticking to the plan and not second-guessing decisions after entering a trade.

• Continuous Learning and Improvement: Encouraged traders to learn from both successes and mistakes, emphasizing the need to keep refining their strategies and improving trade execution.

Summary

Ernie focused on the critical role of volume profile in understanding market structures and making informed trade decisions. He explained how volume profile can be used to identify key support and resistance levels, which are essential for navigating market volatility.

Ernie discussed strategies for handling unexpected market moves, emphasizing the importance of pre-planning trades. He advised traders to develop scenarios for potential market movements and stick to these plans to avoid emotional decision-making during periods of high volatility.

The session also covered trade entry strategies and the importance of adjusting position sizes based on market conditions. Ernie stressed that maintaining mental toughness and discipline is crucial, particularly when facing challenging market conditions. He encouraged traders not to second-guess their decisions after entering a trade and to trust in their pre-planned strategies.

Finally, Ernie emphasized the importance of continuous learning and improvement. He advised traders to analyze both their successes and mistakes to refine their strategies and improve their trade execution over time. The meeting reinforced the need for disciplined trading practices and the strategic use of technical tools like volume profile to achieve consistent results.